410
FXUS61 KRNK 271847
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
247 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUSH COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS IT WEDGES AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND, STRONGER LOW THAT WILL BRING MORE ABUNDANT
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS
IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING ACTIVITIES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
2. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
BATTLE ONGOING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH IS ADVECTING DRY AIR SOUTHWARD
WHILE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ADVECTING MOIST AIR NORTH.
THIS IS CREATING A WALL EFFECT WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ABRUPTLY
STOPPING WHERE THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PREVENTS ANY FURTHER
PROGRESSING OF THE MOIST AIRMASS. SO FAR TODAY, THIS WALL HAS
BEEN ANCHORED ALONG A BLF-DAN LINE. MODELS SUGGEST THIS LINE
MAY MIGRATE AS FAR NORTH AS I-64 BY TUESDAY, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART THE GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAIN REMAIN CONFINED
TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. THE HREF GRAND ENSEMBLE
PAINTS AREAS SOUTH OF 460 AND INTO NC HAS HAVING AN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 0.25 ALONG HWY 460 TO CLOSE TO 1.00 ALONG THE
NC/VA BORDER AND ABOUT 1.50 INCHES FOR THE NC HIGH COUNTRY.
NORTH OF 460, THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE AND OVERALL AMOUNTS
DECREASE DRAMATICALLY. THAT SAID, OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA MAY HAVE
TO WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK (SECOND STORM SYSTEM)TO RECEIVE
ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGH TEMPS. CLOUDS, RAIN, AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ANCHORED WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REMAINING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF TONIGHT'S LOWS. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 40 TO 45. HIGHS ON TUESDAY 45
TO 50.
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES FROM THE RAIN TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY. RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE,
THOUGH MINOR RUNOFF ISSUES MAY OCCUR FOR AREAS WHICH HAVE
RECEIVED FRESHLY FALLEN LEAVES, PRIMARILY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WHERE THE LEAF LITTER HAS CLOGGED DITCHES. BUT IN
SPITE OF THIS, GIVEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS SINCE LATE
SUMMER, NEARLY ALL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO OUR
REGION.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
3) A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC, AND A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT, CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW IN THE PLAINS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH
TURNS INTO A BRIEF CUTOFF LOW BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN JET STREAM LATE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER OUR AREA
WILL BEGIN TO FADE WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL KEEP DREARY, OVERCAST, AND
DRIZZLY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS DO AGREE ON HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE CENTER OF THE LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND. COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL CAUSE A
NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS, A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. NO ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED.
TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MOST RAINFALL SEEN IN
AWHILE ACROSS OUR AREA. MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST
1.50" OF RAIN, WITH MANY NEARING 2". LOCATIONS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT COULD SEE 2-3"+. DUE TO THIS, A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL,
FLOODING IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED, BUT ANY FLOOD-PRONE OR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, THANKS TO THE WEDGE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY, AND THE UPPER LOW LINGERING IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S/50S, WITH A FEW LOW 60S IN THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
EACH MORNING DUE TO THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER, SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE
30S/40S FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
REMNANT SHOWERS WILL FULLY CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING,
AS THE LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH.
TRICK OR TREATING HALLOWEEN NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND WINDY, THOUGH
WINDS DO SLOWLY REDUCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH WILL
PROVIDE LIFT TO INSTIGATE SOME SHOWERS AS ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
FURTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT AS WELL. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS LOW. ANY SHOWERS END BY MIDDAY SUNDAY, BEFORE YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER, WHICH WILL ORIGINATE IN CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO OUR AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS, COLDER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL MEAN
A COLD RAIN MONDAY MORNING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT EACH DAY. LOWS REMAIN CONSISTENT, IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE EACH
MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS CONFINED TO THE
VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA,
OTHERWISE CEILING BASES RANGE FROM 3KFT TO 10KFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF A BLF-ROA-LYH LINE.
WINDS ARE FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 8-14KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 20KTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z/8PM
THIS EVENING, WITH PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH AIR TERMINALS TRANSITIONING
TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR DURING THE 28/00Z TO 28/06Z TIMEFRAME.
IN ADDITION, PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG WILL ALSO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES, LOWERING THEM INTO THE 3SM TO 5SM RANGE AT TIMES.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT, WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20KT TO 25KT RANGE DURING THE 06Z
THROUGH 12Z TIMEFRAME.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE AVIATION SCENARIO IS MODERATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAINFALL ON TUESDAY EVENING,
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND IMPROVED FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF/PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM/NF
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