125
FXUS61 KRNK 282311
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
711 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION, THANKS TO
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PROVIDING A
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS
WILL ALSO ADD TO THE CHILL, THESE FEATURES PROVIDING AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO OUR
AREA BY HALLOWEEN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY
SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO MEET CURRENT
TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL, EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY AND COOL
NIGHT; HOWEVER, LIGHT DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MAKES ITS APPROACH
OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
WHETHER YOU CALL IT "THE WEDGE" OR COLD-AIR DAMMING, IT'S THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN THAT'S IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION'S
WEATHER. WINDS BLOWING CLOCKWISE, AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST, CONTINUE TO BRING A COOL AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IMPINGING ON
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOW ALONG THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT, ONLY TO BE REPLACE BY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMANATING FROM EAST TEXAS AND
APPROACHING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE OVERALL PRECIP PRODUCTION
TONIGHT, BUT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD STILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOW LEVEL LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND MORE SO FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THE DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPMENT.
THE STRUGGLE IS REAL, TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO RISE
WITHIN THIS CLOUDY COOL AIRMASS. HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY MANAGED TO
GET INTO THE UPPER 40S, AND THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE CASE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY, YIELDING HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE SEASONAL NORM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. IF
THERE'S ANY GOOD NEWS FROM THIS, PARTS OF THE AREA WE ARE
GETTING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL. FOR THIS FIRST WAVE OF
RAIN...AREAS SOUTH OF 460 ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND INTO NC
RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN. THIS NEXT WAVE OF RAIN COMING LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PROVIDING SOME
WETTING FARTHER NORTH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LINGERING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
3. DRY, BUT WINDY AND COOLER FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT.
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE A CHILLY, WET PATTERN AS A SLOW-
MOVING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
BEFORE FINALLY GIVING WAY TO DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WILL
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY,
EVENTUALLY MOVING OVER ONTARIO, CANADA, BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO AN ACTIVE
FETCH OF MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE MAIN LOW AND
TRACKING OVER THE PIEDMONT, COMBINED WITH AN EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE
ATLANTIC, WILL BRING MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE PIEDMONT WITH
LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY, CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER, WITH THE LARGE LOW STILL NEARBY AND
WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH AREAWIDE, ON THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL LESSEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT,
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US DECREASES.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE NOTABLY COLD FOR THE
SEASON, RUNNING 5F TO 10F COLDER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE MID-40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE FORECAST STABILIZES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS RAIN COMES TO A DEFINITIVE END ON THURSDAY. A
DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, SETTING UP DRY, CLEAR CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY.
2. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PERIOD WILL BE COMPLEX AND
CHARACTERIZED BY A BRIEF RETURN TO SEASONAL WARMTH, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN CONDITIONS AS A LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF STATES.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. A SHORT-
LIVED BREAK IN THE COLD PATTERN WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE-
SCALE SYSTEM IS ALREADY BEGINNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL
THEN DIVE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY. AHEAD
OF ITS INFLUENCE, A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE WEAK, BRINGING ONLY
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS SETTLING INTO THE MID-40S TO
UPPER 50S.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MURKY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE DEEP LOW. AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE GULF STATES,
IT MAY TRY TO THROW A SHORTWAVE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS WOULD INTRODUCE A NEW CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS STRONG AND SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LIKELY SUCCESSFULLY BLOCKING THE
NORTHERN ADVANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY
EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
AND LIKELY BEYOND IT AS PERIODS OF LOW CIGS, DRIZZLE AND FOG
PRODUCE LOW CIGS, FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IFR
TO LIFR ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF ROA
WHERE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTIAL
RIDGE OBSCURATION FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OF FAR SW VIRGINIA. THESE RESTRICTIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOK
TO LINGER THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WILL ALSO ENTER THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MANY
TERMINALS SEEING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TOWARDS
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.
OF SECONDARY IMPACT TO AIRCRAFT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. NE TO E WINDS, WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12 KTS AT MOST
TERMINALS, WILL BE SEEN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE, WITH GUSTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR
TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...EB/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
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