716
FXUS61 KRNK 120831
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
331 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF OUR REGION. CLOCKWISE WIND
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY. IN GENERAL, EXPECT INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY, WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE WIND AND ITS
POTENTIAL TO CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
2) TEMPERATURES MODERATE.
COLD PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL U.S.(CONUS) SHIFTS EAST.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BUILD
EASTWARD, CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH BRINGING WESTERLY
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
WINDS ALOFT, 2000-5000 FEET AGL, ARE HEALTHY WITH SPEEDS OF
40-50KTS. AS THIS WIND MIXES TO THE SURFACE TODAY EXPECT WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. A WEST WIND FOR OUR AREA WILL ALSO RESULT
IN COMPRESSIONAL (ADIABATIC) WARMING AND DRYING LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS (EAST SIDE) SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO DROP INTO
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...A DRY WINDY DAY. THIS RAISES CONCERN
FOR FIRE WEATHER, THE WIND AND DRYNESS OF THE AIR CONTRIBUTING
TO INCREASING FIRE DANGER.
TODAY'S CATCH...FIRE DANGER. HIGHS TODAY RAPIDLY WARMING TO NEAR
THE SEASONAL NORM...50S MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 60S PIEDMONT. GUSTY
WEST WITH WITH SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH.
HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 20-35 PERCENT.
FOR TONIGHT, AFTER THE WARM BOUNCE THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT GET AS COOL TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN REPSONSE TO SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAY RESULT IN STANDING WAVE CIRRUS
LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
IN THE VALLEYS BUT REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS THE RIDGE CRESTS,
HUMIDITY RECOVERY GOOD IN THE VALLEYS WHERE THE WINDS DECOUPLE.
HUMIDITY RECOVERY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY
POOR DUE TO CONTINUED MIXING FROM THE WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE HIGH SIDE THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. RIDGING, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WEAKENS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEEN. THE BIG
STORY WILL BE THE GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 5C BY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE US-460 CORRIDOR. VALUES SUCH AS THESE, WHEN
MIXED DOWN DRY ADIABATICALLY, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH MID- AND UPPER 50S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, THIS
SCENARIO IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.
SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING SOME ISOLATED OR "SLIGHT
CHANCY" POPS ENCROACHING UPON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LITTLE BIT OF WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING
WARM FRONT. THE OVERALL MOISTURE DEPTH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS
RELATIVELY SHALLOW, AND APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO MAINLY 5-10000 FT.
BASED ON MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT ONLY
A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN IF
ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL REACHES THE GROUND FOR THIS LOWER
CONFIDENCE EVENT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ODDS OF SEEING PRECIPITATION RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
- LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS ANOTHER EARLY OR MID-WEEK
STORM SYSTEM.
THOSE LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. FOR THE
MOST PART, SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS RIDGING WEAKENS AND THE
SURFACE HIGH GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD. WE'LL BE WATCHING A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THERE ARE
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE ODDS OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
SUNDAY, WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT MAY
ENHANCE FORCING SLIGHTLY. ALL-IN-ALL, THOUGH, MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS "DECENTLY HIGH" THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT
THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. (IT WAS SPED
UP A TAD.)
JUST ABOUT ANY FORECAST CONFIDENCE I HAD GREATLY DIMINISHES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE SUNDAY FRONT MOVES THROUGH, FOCUS
SHIFTS TO THE STORM SYSTEM THAT'LL BE HEADING INTO MID-AMERICA.
THERE'S LITTLE CONSENSUS IN THE EVOLUTIONARY DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM,
MUCH LESS WITH THE TIMING. REGARDLESS, THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
IMPACT OUR REGION AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK AND BRING US OUR NEXT SHOT
OF SEEING PRECIPITATION. IF I HAD TO PLACE A WAGER ON WHEN, I WOULD
PROBABLY LEAN CLOSER TO MID-WEEK (TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY?). BUT BASED ON
WHAT I'M SEEING AT THIS HOUR, THERE'S TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PIN
ANYTHING DOWN.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
VALID TAF. MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR LLWS THIS
MORNING AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY SEVERE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE
FROM THE CROSS BARRIER WIND FLOW ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ONCE
THE WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE MID-MORNING ONWARD. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, BUT GUSTS LESSEN TO 15 TO
20 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD PROMOTING CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY VFR SKIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, BUT A FEW MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
BLF AND LWB DURING THAT TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS. IN SPITE OF RECENT PRECIPITATION, LEAF
LITTER WILL DRY QUICKLY, BECOMING CRUNCHY AND RECEPTIVE TO FIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER, AND THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN
FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST. WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY AND 15 TO 25 MPH
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR
ALONG THE RIDGETOPS.
BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY ARE A CONCERN, WITH THE PEAK POTENTIAL
FOR FIRE CONCERNS DURING THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS WHEN THE
VAPOR PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE THE HIGHEST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY FRIDAY, LESSENING THE EFFECTS OF FIRE SPREAD.
HOWEVER, FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S, FAVORING GOOD
BURNING CONDITIONS.
LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM
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