612
FXUS61 KRNK 131905
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
205 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MILD END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE
TRANQUIL WINDS BY TOMORROW. WHILE MANY WILL START COOLER ACROSS
THE AREA, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB QUICKLY WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE
WEEKEND IS LOOKING WARMER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN LOW
OVERALL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) STAYING BREEZY WITH A WARMING TREND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY, WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS LOOK TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST DUE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEAST
FINALLY PULLS EAST FRIDAY, THE REGION SHOULD START TO FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 500MB
HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT, LOWS WILL ACTUALLY
BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS MORNING AS CLEAR SKIES AND CALMER
WINDS ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING AT THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY SEE MID 20S AS WELL.
OVERALL, EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY, WITH A COOL START, BUT A
MILD FINISH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE MORE CALM AREAWIDE. THIS WILL
REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) STRONG GUSTY WINS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT SUNDAY.
3) SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WEAK RIDGING WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE IT
BREAKS DOWN EVEN FURTHER IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE
AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING SOME CHANCES OF RAIN FOR OUR COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN WV AND THEIR BORDERING VA COUNTIES. THERE WON'T BE MUCH
OTHER ACTIVITY TO SPEAK OF ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
WEAKER FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA ON SUNDAY, SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST WITH BETTER COVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A MAJORITY OF
LOCALES WILL RECEIVE RAIN ON SUNDAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S, EVEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS, SO DON'T LOOK OUT FOR ANY SNOW. THERE WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FRONT ON TUESDAY BRINGS MORE RAIN
A TRANSIENT REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY, GIVING US A QUIET DAY OF WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COMES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY, STILL WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES, TO DROP ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. THE AMOUNTS
SUGGESTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO BE HIGHER THAN THOSE WITH THE
WEEKEND FRONTS, AND MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN TO CENTER ON TUESDAY, SO ANY QPF FORECAST
AT THIS JUNCTURE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. AFTER THIS
FRONT, A HIGH DOES SEEM TO BE FORMING OVER THE NORTHEAST, SO WE MAY
BE ENTERING A CAD PATTERN IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
VALID TAF. WHILE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST, THEY LOOK TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AREAWIDE.
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
EVENTUALLY 5-10 KNOTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS
SIMILARLY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH, WITH WINDS OF ONLY 5 KNOTS
OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL, THERE ARE
NO FLIGHT CONCERNS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY OUTSIDE ANY
MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY BRING LOCAL SUB-VFR CIGS TO
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONGOING TODAY.
THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING. NOW THAT WE HAVE HAD A WIDESPREAD
DEEP FREEZE, THERE IS A LOT MORE MATERIAL AVAILABLE TO BURN.
THE REALLY LOW DEWPOINTS THE LAST FEW DAYS, TYPICAL OF AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS, AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE WIND, HAS REALLY DRIED OUT
THE LEAF LITTER. LEAVES ARE CRUNCHY AND RECEPTIVE TO FIRE. A
HIGHER LEVEL OF CAUTION IS ADVISED IF BURNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WARMEST READINGS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE READINGS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL. CAVEAT, THERE WILL
BE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND AND A BIT HIGHER RH, SO THERE
IS A TRADE OFF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY, BUT INCREASE
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, SO NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
RESPECT TO WIND EITHER.
IN A NUTSHELL, SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF HEIGHTENED AWARENESS.
AS FOR RAIN POTENTIAL... LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS
EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...EB
FIRE WEATHER...PM
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