338
FXUS61 KRNK 132319
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
619 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MILD END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE
TRANQUIL WINDS BY TOMORROW. WHILE MANY WILL START COOLER ACROSS
THE AREA, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB QUICKLY WITH CLEAR SKIES,
WITH THE WEEKEND LOOKING WARMER. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN
LOW OVERALL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 610 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET TONIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST, WITH SOME UPPER
20S IN A FEW VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY, WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS LOOK TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST DUE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEAST
FINALLY PULLS EAST FRIDAY, THE REGION SHOULD START TO FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 500MB
HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT, LOWS WILL ACTUALLY
BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS MORNING AS CLEAR SKIES AND CALMER
WINDS ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING AT THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY SEE MID 20S AS WELL.
OVERALL, EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY, WITH A COOL START, BUT A
MILD FINISH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE MORE CALM AREAWIDE. THIS WILL
REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT SUNDAY.
3) SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WEAK RIDGING WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE IT
BREAKS DOWN EVEN FURTHER IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE
AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING SOME CHANCES OF RAIN FOR OUR COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN WV AND THEIR BORDERING VA COUNTIES. THERE WON'T BE MUCH
OTHER ACTIVITY TO SPEAK OF ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
WEAKER FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA ON SUNDAY, SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST WITH BETTER COVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A MAJORITY OF
LOCALES WILL RECEIVE RAIN ON SUNDAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S, EVEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS, SO DON'T LOOK OUT FOR ANY SNOW. THERE WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FRONT ON TUESDAY BRINGS MORE RAIN
A TRANSIENT REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY, GIVING US A QUIET DAY OF WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COMES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY, STILL WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES, TO DROP ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. THE AMOUNTS
SUGGESTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO BE HIGHER THAN THOSE WITH THE
WEEKEND FRONTS, AND MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN TO CENTER ON TUESDAY, SO ANY QPF FORECAST
AT THIS JUNCTURE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. AFTER THIS
FRONT, A HIGH DOES SEEM TO BE FORMING OVER THE NORTHEAST, SO WE MAY
BE ENTERING A CAD PATTERN IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 610 PM EST THURSDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHTER WEST WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY OUTSIDE ANY
MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY BRING LOCAL SUB-VFR CIGS TO
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY BUT STILL VERY DRY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT RH VALUES WILL
AGAIN DROP INTO THE 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE, WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WARMEST READINGS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE READINGS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL. CAVEAT, THERE WILL
BE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND AND A BIT HIGHER RH, SO THERE
IS A TRADE OFF. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, SO
NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH RESPECT TO WIND EITHER.
IN A NUTSHELL, SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF HEIGHTENED AWARENESS.
AS FOR RAIN POTENTIAL... LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS
EXPECTED UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...EB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...PM
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