124
FXUS61 KRNK 141427
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
927 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MILD END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE
TRANQUIL WINDS TODAY. WHILE MANY WILL START COOLER ACROSS THE
AREA, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB QUICKLY WITH CLEAR SKIES. A
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVERALL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 900 AM EST FRIDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL SKY
COVER WAS ADDED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE SOME
ALTOCU HAVE DEVELOPED ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PEAKS OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGE:
1) WARM AND DRY UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING CIRRUS.
RIDGES SHOULD REMAIN MIXED THROUGH THE MORNING, PREVENTING
TEMPERATURES FROM TAKING A SHARP DROP. HOWEVER, VALLEYS COULD
SEE LOWS IN THE 30S AND UPPER 20S AS THEY DECOUPLE.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, TEMPERATURES WARM STEADILY INTO
THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) A PASSING FRONT BRINGS MOUNTAINS SHOWERS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT.
3) GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF STATES AS
A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY, WITH A TRAILING FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. BEST DYNAMICS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT A FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING AND SPOTTY UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
MPH RANGE. SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WINDS WILL RELAX SOME BY MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST.
ABOVE, TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES COOL SOME BY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD COOL DOWN ON
MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY
2) TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER.
LOOKING TO TUESDAY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC, BRINGING RAIN FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THERE'S EVEN POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY AND BATH COUNTY DURING THE MORNING. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM, SIGNALS IN THE
DATA INDICATE THAT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN FOR THURSDAY, WILL ALREADY BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
COULD BE IMPACTFUL DURING NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 610 AM EST THURSDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY OUTSIDE ANY
MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY BRING LOCAL SUB-VFR CIGS TO
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 145 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) LIGHTER WINDS TODAY, BUT STILL VERY DRY.
RH THIS AFTERNOON TO DROP INTO THE LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS A BIT WEAKER TODAY, BUT COULD STILL HAVE A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WARMEST READINGS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE READINGS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL. CAVEAT, THERE WILL
BE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND AND A BIT HIGHER RH, SO THERE
IS A TRADE OFF. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, SO
NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH RESPECT TO WIND EITHER.
IN A NUTSHELL, SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF HEIGHTENED AWARENESS.
AS FOR RAIN POTENTIAL... LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS
EXPECTED UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...BMG
FIRE WEATHER...BMG/PM
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