085
FXUS61 KRNK 141910
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
210 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS; HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN LOW, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN
THE LOWS WAKE MAY INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) WARM AND DRY UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF SE WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF SE
WEST VIRGINIA, THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON
SATURDAY. THIS AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW, A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACCOMPANIED BY A SOUTHWEST 40-50 KNOT
850MB LLJ WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
COMBINED FACTORS LOOK TO SLOWLY INCREASE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE, WITH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
LIKELY SEEING THE HIGHEST GUSTS. TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS ON
SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY.
OVERALL, WITH THE REGION BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SURFACE LOW ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND LOW TO MID
60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARM SUNDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO COOL THINGS DOWN AND
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
2) WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FRONT RAISES FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS
WILL BE A BIT WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNTIL THE COOLER WEATHER
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES IN. SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE MID-50S TO UPPER 60S, POTENTIALLY REACHING 70F IN
THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH VALUES IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE
PRECIPITATION IN QUESTION WILL BE LIMITED AND LIKELY OROGRAPHICALLY
BASED. GENERIC RAIN SHOWERS ARE TO BE EXPECTED AS WELL AS TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.01-0.10" FOR THE FAR WESTERN AND
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS. THE WEATHER
BECOMES CALM AND BENIGN AS A HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS. BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE GETS HERE, HOWEVER, WINDS FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL PICK UP
CONSIDERABLY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WITH HIGHER VALUES AT RIDGETOPS DUE TO AN
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AT 850MB WITH WINDS OF 40-50 MPH. SINCE THE
RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY NOT REACH AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
THIS REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY
DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BETWEEN 20-30% SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IN THE TEENS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH WINDS, LACK OF RAIN, AND AN INFLOW OF DRY
AIR, CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRES. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR IMPACTS AND UPDATES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCE LATER THIS WEEK FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
2) HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT ON WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL PROVIDE AN
EXTENDED WARM FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BUT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. EARLY MORNING FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN WEST VIRGINIA, BUT THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BE RAIN. A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT GOES. IT VERY WELL COULD BLOCK MOST THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM'S PATH SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
THERE IS A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE ROCKIES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BUT
THE TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW. OTHERWISE, A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER FLORIDA WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND WHERE TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-50S TO MID-60S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH GUSTS FOR MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS INCREASING TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12 UTC SATURDAY.
BOTH LYH AND DAN WILL SEE SIMILAR INCREASES, BUT TO ONLY AROUND
10-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THIS TIME OVERNIGHT,
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR LWB AND BLF, WITH SOME OFF
AND ON MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND THE 12 UTC TIMEFRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH IN THESE RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING, BUT GIVEN CLIMATOLOGICAL TRENDS, IT WAS WORTH
INCLUDING IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE SITES. THESE RESTRICTIONS LOOK
TO LINGER OFF AND ON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE FOR BLF
AND LWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY OUTSIDE ANY
MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY BRING LOCAL SUB-VFR CIGS TO
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 100 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) GUSTY CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY, BUT MORE MOISTURE INCREASES
RH AREAWIDE.
2) GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS RETURNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WARMEST READINGS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE READINGS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL. CAVEAT, THERE WILL
BE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND AND A BIT HIGHER RH, SO THERE
IS A TRADE OFF. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, SO
NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH RESPECT TO WIND EITHER. DRY
AIR LOOKS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY, WITH WINDY CONDITIONS LINGERING.
THIS MAY INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN, WITH POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS NEEDING TO BE ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
IN A NUTSHELL, SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF HEIGHTENED AWARENESS.
AS FOR RAIN POTENTIAL... LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS
EXPECTED UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...EB
FIRE WEATHER...BMG/EB
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