682
FXUS61 KRNK 150650
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
150 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS;
HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN LOW, WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING
ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW MAY INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
2) RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY MILD THIS MORNING, WITH MANY LOCATIONS
STILL REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A QUICK WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TODAY AND AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING, BUT A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER
TONIGHT, SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE UNLIKELY
TO SEE ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS APPROACHING FRONT.
PREFRONTAL WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY TODAY, ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE 20MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY
SURPASSING 30MPH AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARM SUNDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO COOL THINGS DOWN AND
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
2) WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FRONT RAISES FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS
WILL BE A BIT WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNTIL THE COOLER WEATHER
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES IN. SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE MID-50S TO UPPER 60S, POTENTIALLY REACHING 70F IN
THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH VALUES IN THE 40S AND 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES, AND
ACCUMULATIONS ONLY UP TO 0.10" ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS. THE WEATHER
BECOMES CALM AND BENIGN AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS. BEFORE
THE HIGH PRESSURE GETS HERE, HOWEVER, WINDS FROM THE COLD FRONT
WILL PICK UP CONSIDERABLY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WITH HIGHER VALUES AT
RIDGETOPS DUE TO AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AT 850MB WITH WINDS
OF 40-50 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 20-30% SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IN THE TEENS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH WINDS, LACK OF RAIN, AND AN INFLUX OF DRY
AIR, CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. THIS WILL
BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR IMPACTS AND UPDATES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCE LATER THIS WEEK FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
2) HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT ON WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL PROVIDE AN
EXTENDED WARM FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BUT IS HIGHER WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. EARLY MORNING FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN WEST VIRGINIA, BUT THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BE RAIN. A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT GOES. IT VERY WELL COULD BLOCK MOST THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM'S PATH SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
THERE IS A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE ROCKIES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BUT
THE TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW. OTHERWISE, A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER FLORIDA WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND WHERE TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-50S TO MID-60S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EST SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD VFR THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
SOME STRATUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THIS REMAINS
IN THE THE 4-5KFT RANGE. CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
CIRRUS WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING,
BUT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COMES LATE IN THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME BRIEF MVFR FOR BLF/LWB. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN EAST OF THE
THOSE TERMINALS.
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, GENERALLY FROM
THE WSW. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 TO 25KTS POSSIBLE, AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH A INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET, WIND SHEAR ALSO BECOMES A CONCERN. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY, OUTSIDE ANY
MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY BRING LOCAL SUB-VFR CIGS TO
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 145 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) GUSTY CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY, BUT MORE MOISTURE INCREASES
RH AREAWIDE.
2) GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS RETURNING.
GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND VERY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
THE 60S AND 70S. FORTUNATELY, MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER, LEAF LITTER STILL REMAINS DRY
FROM MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRYING THIS PAST WEEK, BUT INCREASED
HUMIDITY SHOULD PREVENT RAPID FIRE SPREAD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY BEHIND A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SE WEST VIRGINIA. LITTLE TO NO
RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH, ALONG WITH A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS, TO MID
UPPER 60S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...RH MINS WILL DROP INTO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. THIS BRINGS A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR
SUNDAY, NEARLY AREAWIDE.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON MONDAY, STILL WILL SEE
GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH RANGE AT TIMES. EVEN LOWER MIN RH VALUES
INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HEIGHTENED FIRE
AWARENESS THROUGH MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...BMG
FIRE WEATHER...BMG
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