021
FXUS61 KRNK 151134
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
634 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS;
HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN LOW, WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING
ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW MAY INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
2) RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY MILD THIS MORNING, WITH MANY LOCATIONS
STILL REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A QUICK WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TODAY AND AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING, BUT A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER
TONIGHT, SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE UNLIKELY
TO SEE ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS APPROACHING FRONT.
PREFRONTAL WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY TODAY, ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE 20MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS POSSIBLY
SURPASSING 30MPH AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
2) LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN, MORE SO FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460.
3) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO DECREASING CLOUDS, THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WHERE, GIVEN ABUNDANT
DRY FUELS SUCH AS FALLEN LEAVES AND DEAD BRUSH ALREADY IN PLACE,
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY HELP ANY FIRES TO SPREAD QUICKLY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY.
LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO HINT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IMPACTING THE HIGHER RIDGES NORTH OF I-64 OF
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO BATH AND ALLEGHANY VA COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS, THE MAJORITY OF TOTAL RAINFALL TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS FOCUSED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460, WITH
THE HIGHEST TOTALS OCCURRING NORTH OF I-64 WEST OF COVINGTON -
GENERALLY IN THE 0.25" TO 0.50" RANGE. RAINFALL TOTALS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST TAPER DOWN TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TOWARD
THE VA/NC STATE BORDER. THAT STATED, STILL WORKING TO RESOLVE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DATA, SO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THESE TOTALS
AT THIS TIME.
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 240 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING.
WITH COVERAGE OF RAINFALL DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST, EXPECT MAINLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK, MAINTAINING COOL
WINDFLOW FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY THAT WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON EARLY FRIDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PASS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, DRAWING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN FRIDAY EVENING THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EST SATURDAY...
MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING, BUT SOME MVFR CIGS ARE NOTED ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA.
SOME STRATUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THIS GENERALLY
REMAINS IN THE THE 3-5KFT RANGE. CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP TODAY, BUT BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS COME LATE IN THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD WITH THE ACTUAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF MVFR FOR
BLF/LWB. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN EAST OF THE THOSE TERMINALS.
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, GENERALLY FROM
THE WSW. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 TO 25KTS POSSIBLE, AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH A INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET, WIND SHEAR ALSO BECOMES A CONCERN. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY, OUTSIDE ANY
MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY BRING LOCAL SUB-VFR CIGS TO
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 145 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) GUSTY CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY, BUT MORE MOISTURE INCREASES
RH AREAWIDE.
2) GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS RETURNING.
GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND VERY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
THE 60S AND 70S. FORTUNATELY, MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER, LEAF LITTER STILL REMAINS DRY
FROM MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRYING THIS PAST WEEK, BUT INCREASED
HUMIDITY SHOULD PREVENT RAPID FIRE SPREAD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY BEHIND A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SE WEST VIRGINIA. LITTLE TO NO
RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH, ALONG WITH A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS, TO MID
UPPER 60S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...RH MINS WILL DROP INTO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. THIS BRINGS A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR
SUNDAY, NEARLY AREAWIDE.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON MONDAY, STILL WILL SEE
GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH RANGE AT TIMES. EVEN LOWER MIN RH VALUES
INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HEIGHTENED FIRE
AWARENESS THROUGH MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...BMG
FIRE WEATHER...BMG
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