668
FXUS61 KRNK 151924
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
224 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA. DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW HAVE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY.
2) FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BRING
SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF SE WEST VIRGINIA; HOWEVER, WITH
DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND DRY AIR INTRUSION ALONG
THIS FRONT, SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH MUCH BEYOND THE BLUE
RIDGE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA AS SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN RECENT CAM GUIDANCE.
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND
35MPH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, DRY AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN THE INTENSE WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA, AND MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20-25% RANGE, A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THESE
WIND GUSTS THAT MAY REACH 50 MPH FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE HAVE ALSO PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF SW VIRGINIA, NW NORTH CAROLINA, AND SE WEST
VIRGINIA.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND MID TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) QUIET WEATHER UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST, COOLER AIR WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, AT AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
25+ MPH POSSIBLE. SOME RIDGETOPS MAY SEE GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH UNTIL
WINDS DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA, ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LIKELY FORM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
SHOWERS WILL STRETCH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE VIRGINIA LOCATIONS, WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE NC PIEDMONT.
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH QPF
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.10-0.20" FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF VA/WV,
WITH ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND SOME
PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, IN THE 40S/50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S/30S
SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS, BUT REBOUND INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 240 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY WEST OF BLUE RIDGE, NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE MID TO LATE WEEK, AS THE WARM FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TENNESSEE AREA WILL BECOME
STATIONARY. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN
APPALACHIANS, CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. POPS REMAIN LOW, AROUND 20-30% EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST, THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT BACK NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY, PUTTING US IN A WARM, MOIST SECTOR. THE COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS MODERATELY HIGH WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, AROUND 50-60%, AND AROUND 40-50% FOR THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER,
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DOWN WITH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE AREA. ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR LASTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
BEFORE CLEARING OUT MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MIDWEEK, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
60S, WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE PIEDMONT, A FEW
LOW 70S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY
MILD, IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S EACH MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AT
ALL TERMINALS; HOWEVER, STRATUS HAS MOSTLY OVERTAKEN THE REGION.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST, SOME
SHOWERS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS LOOK TO PUSH INTO MOUNTAIN TAF
LOCATIONS TO INCLUDE LWB, BLF, AND BCB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO END BY 12 UTC FOR ALL TERMINALS.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, AND IN THE FRONT'S WAKE, GUSTY
WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD TRANSITION TO OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS FOR AT
TIMES FOR BLF, LWB, ROA, AND BCB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS PRIOR TO WINDS
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A STRONG WESTERLY 850MB JET MOVES OVER THE
REGION.
AS THESE WESTERLY WINDS MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, EXTREMELY DRY AIR WILL SIMILARLY MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL CLEAR OUT ANY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA, RETURNING
VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS BY THE 12-14 UTC TIMEFRAME ON
SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY, OUTSIDE ANY
MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY BRING LOCAL SUB-VFR CIGS TO
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 200 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
2) A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SW AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NW NORTH CAROLINA.
AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT USHERS IN DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
ON SUNDAY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A
FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SE WEST VIRGINIA. LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE BLUE RIDGE
AND EAST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH, ALONG WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S IN THE MOUNTAINS, TO MID UPPER 60S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...RH MINS WILL DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. THIS
BRINGS A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR SUNDAY, NEARLY
AREAWIDE. GIVEN THIS THREAT, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON MONDAY, THE AREA WILL
STILL SEE GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH RANGE AT TIMES. EVEN LOWER MIN
RH VALUES INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HEIGHTENED
FIRE AWARENESS THROUGH MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
VAZ007-009>020-022-023.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB
FIRE WEATHER...BMG/EB
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