525
FXUS61 KRNK 160020
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
720 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 720 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE AMHERST,
BEDFORD, AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES DUE TO GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY.
2) LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND
BRING INCREASING WINDS. THIS FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND DRY AIR INTRUSION ALONG THIS FRONT MEANS THAT THE
SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GO FURTHER EAST THAN THE BLUE RIDGE.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO AS
THEY MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA DUE TO INSTABILITY
ALOFT BEFORE DECAYING AS THEY ENTER NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRIER
AIR WILL ALSO ARRIVE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING
TOWARDS 20 TO 25 PERCENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION
OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE THE FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE AMHERST, BEDFORD, AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE ON SUNDAY.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES. THESE VALUES SHOULD RECOVER TOWARDS THE
LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON
SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE PIEDMONT SHOULD BOOST HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) QUIET WEATHER UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST, COOLER AIR WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, AT AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
25+ MPH POSSIBLE. SOME RIDGETOPS MAY SEE GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH UNTIL
WINDS DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA, ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LIKELY FORM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
SHOWERS WILL STRETCH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE VIRGINIA LOCATIONS, WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE NC PIEDMONT.
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH QPF
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.10-0.20" FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF VA/WV,
WITH ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND SOME
PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, IN THE 40S/50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S/30S
SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS, BUT REBOUND INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 240 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY WEST OF BLUE RIDGE, NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE MID TO LATE WEEK, AS THE WARM FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TENNESSEE AREA WILL BECOME
STATIONARY. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN
APPALACHIANS, CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. POPS REMAIN LOW, AROUND 20-30% EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST, THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT BACK NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY, PUTTING US IN A WARM, MOIST SECTOR. THE COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS MODERATELY HIGH WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, AROUND 50-60%, AND AROUND 40-50% FOR THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER,
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DOWN WITH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE AREA. ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR LASTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
BEFORE CLEARING OUT MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MIDWEEK, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
60S, WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE PIEDMONT, A FEW
LOW 70S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY
MILD, IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S EACH MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...
AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE A BIT ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY TO BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO
ALL TERMINALS BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. A WIND GUST OF 30 KTS WAS ALREADY REPORTED AT KBLF. WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH
FOR ALL OF SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST BETWEEN 30-40 KTS WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS TOWARDS 50 KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
TO BE AN ISSUE AT ALL TERMINALS THOUGH COVERAGE IS A BIT
SCATTERED. CURRENTLY, THE WORST OF THE WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM (GIVE OR TAKE) FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. KBLF, KROA,
KBCB, AND KLWB ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE PRECIPITATION AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BUT THERE IS A RISK OF WILDFIRES
DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT, PLUMES OF SMOKE COULD
OCCUPY PARTS OF THE SKY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WINDS WILL PERSIST THOUGH WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK. WEATHER BECOMES BENIGN BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS, UNTIL A FRONTAL SYSTEM SENDS A
WARM AND COLD FRONT TO THE AREA AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND SUB-VFR SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 200 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
2) A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SW AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NW NORTH CAROLINA.
AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT USHERS IN DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
ON SUNDAY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A
FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SE WEST VIRGINIA. LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE BLUE RIDGE
AND EAST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH, ALONG WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S IN THE MOUNTAINS, TO MID UPPER 60S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...RH MINS WILL DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. THIS
BRINGS A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR SUNDAY, NEARLY
AREAWIDE. GIVEN THIS THREAT, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON MONDAY, THE AREA WILL
STILL SEE GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH RANGE AT TIMES. EVEN LOWER MIN
RH VALUES INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HEIGHTENED
FIRE AWARENESS THROUGH MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
VAZ007-009>020-022>024-034-035.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...EB/PW
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...CG
FIRE WEATHER...BMG/EB
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