748
FXUS61 KRNK 161126
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
626 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A FEW AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
2) VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
3) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION)
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER,
DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PREVENT RAIN FROM MAKING IT
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY GUSTY
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30MPH
WILL BE COMMON, WITH MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LIKELY
TO SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF OF 40MPH AT TIMES. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S. HOWEVER, WILL STILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S...POSSIBLY REACHING 70 IN A FEW LOCATIONS. STRONG WINDS, A
VERY DRY AIRMASS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TODAY AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
BE ISSUED ACROSS MOST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES. THESE VALUES SHOULD RECOVER TOWARDS THE
LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON
SUNDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE PIEDMONT SHOULD BOOST HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
INTO TUESDAY.
2) WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
MONDAY, BUT LOCALLY, WILL STILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY THAN SUNDAY, BUT
STILL COULD SEE AREAS GUSTING OVER 20MPH AT TIMES. WINDS
GRADUALLY RELAX BY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION BY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY, BUT RAIN
APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS INTO
THE REGION.
COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND CHILLY OVERNIGHTS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST SUNDAY...
1) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
2) SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NOT LIKELY.
BROAD SOUTHEAST RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, FEATURING VERY WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGING
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WILL EVENTUALLY GET SHEARED AND WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF RAIN LOCALLY, OTHER THAN
AREAS OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 625 AM EST SUNDAY...
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY
FOR LWB/BLF. SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT AND ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
BY LATE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TODAY, WITH MANY LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO GUST TO 30KTS OR HIGHER DURING THE DAY. HIGHEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, WHERE SOME GUSTS OVER 40KTS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS TO RELAX A BIT TONIGHT, BUT STILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE
20 TO 30KT RANGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WINDS WILL PERSIST THOUGH WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK. WEATHER BECOMES BENIGN BRIEFLY ON MON/TUES,
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE TUES NIGHT/WEDS
WITH A PASSING SYSTEM. VFR TO RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 220 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
2) A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FIRE DANGER CONTINUES IN MONDAY.
A VERY DRY AIRMASS ARRIVES TODAY BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON LATE THIS MORNING, AND THESE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE GUSTS EXCEEDING 40MPH AT TIMES. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY GUSTY WINDS, LOW RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS AND 20 PERCENT RANGE, ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY. THIS BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY AT THE MOMENT IS HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HAVE RECEIVED A
COUPLE TENTHS, BUT THIS HAS BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO WEST
VIRGINIA. EVEN WITH SOME RAIN THIS MORNING, RAPID DRYING IS
EXPECTED WITH THE COMBINATION OF A DRY AIRMASS AND GUSTY WINDS.
AS SUCH, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AND WITH A DAY OF
DRYING TODAY, MONDAY COULD BE JUST AS MUCH OF A CONCERN AS
TODAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20 MPH RANGE, MIN RH EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AND ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED TO
ADDRESS THIS CONCERN IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-
034-035.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...BMG
FIRE WEATHER...BMG
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