135
FXUS61 KRNK 170059
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
759 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, GUST
WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER RISK ACROSS THE AREA. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION, WHICH WILL BRING THE WEEKS FIRST RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND EARLY PORTION
OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY.
3) TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S, WITH UPPER 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN TOMORROW, THOUGH THEY
WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS, ALONG WITH LOW RH VALUES IN THE TEENS/20S AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER INCREASED FIRE DANGER DAY
ON MONDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE COOL, IN THE 40S/50S DUE TO
THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS FINALLY REDUCE MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A COUPLE UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST, THE FIRST BEING TO
LOWER DEWPOINTS AS OBSERVATIONS WERE AROUND 5 DEGREES LOWER
THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE SECOND CHANGE WAS TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO START
TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH THE AREA PRIMARILY
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
GUSTY WINDS AS A SLIGHT RESURGENCE IN THE NORTHWEST 850MB JET
DEVELOPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY LEADING TO CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA SINCE RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND
20S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25
MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RH
VALUES AND VERY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT BEING ISSUED FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
BY MONDAY EVENING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT ON MONDAY.
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MUCH COOLER, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND MID TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
2) COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY WEEK QUICKLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL MIDWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-10 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF VERY
LOW DEWPOINTS AND ELEVATED WINDS COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED LEVEL OF
FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH, WARM/MOIST
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. MOST OF TUESDAY WILL REMAIN QUIET
UNTIL A WARM FRONT ACROSS KENTUCKY APPROACHES TUESDAY EVENING. A
DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ALONG THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT, AND MOVES EAST
INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY EVEN
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NC/VA MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE FRONT. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF THE NC/VA STATE LINE, WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS IN WV. BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY, THE RAIN CLEARS OUT,
LEAVING THE REST OF THE PERIOD QUIET FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE
WESTERN FACING MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES,
DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT FORMS IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RAIN TOTALS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW, DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE FRONTS
AND SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, AROUND 0.25 UP TO 0.50" IN WV.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S, WITH
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WV REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S. BY
WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
CHILLY TUESDAY MORNING, IN THE 20S/30S, BUT ALSO INCREASE WITH THE
WAA, INTO THE 40S/50S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH AREA-WIDE
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LAST UNTIL SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVES
EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FINALLY
MOVES NORTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US, WITH MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THEN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST THEN NORTHEAST, THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTH, WITH THE LOW BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. A NEW LOW THEN FORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN JET STREAM. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO AROUND 40-50%, WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A DISTURBANCE WILL STILL
REMAIN IN THE DEEP SOUTH, BUT MODELS SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS, WITH
SOME MODELS KEEPING THE SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS IT PASSES BY,
WHILE OTHERS SHOW IT TAKING A NORTHEASTERLY ROUTE AND BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BE MONITORED SINCE IT IS STILL A WEEK OUT, BUT A GOOD CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN COULD IMPACT OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S/70S EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT REACHING UPPER 70S
ON FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTER THE FROPA, HIGHS FALL SLIGHTLY INTO THE
50S/60S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S/50S,
WITH SOME 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS RETURNING SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EST SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE REDUCING POST-SUNSET, BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY
AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH 20-30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT DAN/LYH, WHERE GUSTS WILL BE 10-20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW, BUT WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON, WIND GUSTS
FINALLY REDUCE TO BELOW 20 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM
GUSTY WINDS, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WINDS SHOULD BECOME BENIGN BRIEFLY MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY,
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS LOOK
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSING SYSTEM BRINGING
RAINFALL TO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 700 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) THE CRITICAL FIRE RISK HAS NOW ENDED AS RH VALUES RISE.
2) A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FIRE DANGER CONTINUES FOR MONDAY.
UPDATE: DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THEREFORE, DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED FOR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTING HIGHER THAN
FORECAST IN THE PIEDMONT, SO WINDS WERE ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY,
THOUGH THEY DO BRIEFLY REDUCE OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE
ANOTHER FIRE DANGER DAY, AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG ALONG WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS.
THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30+ MPH
RANGE, LOW RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20 PERCENT
RANGE, ALONG WITH DRY FUELS ON THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AGAIN ON MONDAY. FORTUNATELY, WINDS DO
LOOK TO DIMINISH SOME ON MONDAY; HOWEVER, RH VALUES WILL LIKELY
BE MUCH LOWER AREAWIDE, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER TEENS RH
VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT. THIS CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FIRE WEATHER SPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY. BURNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE DISCOURAGED FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB/JCB
NEAR TERM...EB/JCB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB/JCB
FIRE WEATHER...BMG/EB/JCB
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