324
FXUS61 KRNK 170702
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
202 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARRIVE ON TUESDAY FROM A QUICK
MOVING DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN FOR THE END
OF THE WEAK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 115 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS STILL LIKELY INTO THE 20 MPH RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL FINALLY RELAX.
THE ARRIVING AIRMASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE MID TO LOWER TEENS TODAY. THIS VERY DRY
AIRMASS, COMBINED WITH CONTINUED WINDS IN THE 20 MPH RANGE WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASED FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER, BUT STILL MAY SEE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY.
2. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY, BUT ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, EVENTUALLY
OPENING INTO A WAVE AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BROAD RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF AND LOOKS TO
REMAIN SITUATED THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AFTER TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL US, WITH THE WARM
FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT NOT MUCH FORWARD PROGRESSION, AND APPEARS TO STALL
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED, MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE THAN A PROLONGED RAIN. SHOWERS WILL REACH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME, AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WV, SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHWEST NC, BETWEEN
0.75" TO 1.0" WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN QPF FARTHER EAST, UP TO 0.25"
OR SO BY THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS, THEN AROUND 0.10" IN THE
PIEDMONT.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY, AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND VERY SIMILARLY, THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDING BY THE MIDWEEK, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70 IN THE NC
PIEDMONT. LOWS WILL BE WARM, IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MORE RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST, NEARLY EACH DAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER ON
SUNDAY.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 500MB PATTERN SHOWS SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN US, WITH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND
ANOTHER HEADING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE THE EASTERN US
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE, THOUGH A TROUGH
LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THE START OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL US AND TRACK EASTWARD,
BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY, AND
THEN A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY, THOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGES. THAT BEING
SAID, WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR FRIDAY, BUT THE RAIN CHANCES
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE WEST AND LOW 70S
IN THE EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AFTER THE
COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION, IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST AND
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE EAST. THE WARM LOWS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN
AND DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DEPARTURES PEAK FRIDAY, BETWEEN 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE LOW TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES WILL BE
GREATEST FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, BETWEEN 20 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EST MONDAY...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE WIND, WHICH WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OVER 30KTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A
PASSING SYSTEM BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND SUB-VFR COULD
RETURN TO THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 150 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. RH VALUES THIS
MORNING HAVE RECOVERED VERY LITTLE WITH MAX RH ONLY INTO THE 30
PERCENT TO LOW 40 PERCENT RANGE. WILL SEE ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN
RH TODAY AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S
AND DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIN RH
VALUES IN THE LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER TEENS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, STILL
COULD HAVE GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25MPH FOR A COUPLE HOURS DURING
PEAK MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH VERY
LOW RH, WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF ADVERSE FIRE
BEHAVIOR. OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED...ANY FIRE COULD
QUICKLY SPREAD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG
FIRE WEATHER...BMG
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