408
FXUS61 KRNK 180526
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1226 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PASS OVERHEAD
TONIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND,
BRINGING RAIN TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
POTENTIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST MONDAY...
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT IS ON TRACK. WINDS
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DECLINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST GUST
IN BLACKSBURG WAS ABOUT 15 MPH. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WON'T BE
ENOUGH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SINCE IT IS EXTREMELY DRY OUT. ONLY MAJOR
UPDATE WAS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MOST OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES DUE TO A FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR TUESDAY. SEE
FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
2) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ARRIVES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT DOES.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT, WHICH ARE DOWN FROM FROM THOSE EARLIER THIS MORNING
THAT WERE 5 TO 10 MPH STRONGER.
WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE, WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING
THE 5 PM TO 6 PM TIMEFRAME TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PASS OVERHEAD. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS OUR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WITH THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ALLOWING
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 64 IN GREENBRIER
COUNTY, WHERE AS MUCH AS 0.50" IS POSSIBLE LOCALLY IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY BY SUNSET. GIVEN THAT MOIST AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY
IN PLACE, BELIEVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TOWARD HIGHWAYS 460 AND 220
BY SUNSET.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RIDING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA LATE
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH
HAS OUTPACED THE SURFACE LOW, THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING OVERALL. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS THAT LIKELY STARTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH
OF THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
REMNANTS OF THE STRUNG OUT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS PUSH
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES COASTLINES MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK IN DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FROM THIS SYSTEM,
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT, WITH BETTER RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THE 0.20-0.50 INCH RANGE EXPECTED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, AND 0.01-0.15 INCH RANGE EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IS POSSIBLE.
RAIN LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION, HOWEVER CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MOST
OF THE AREA AS CLOUD COVER FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM UPSTREAM STARTS
TO APPROACH THE AREA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS A DRAPED STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LEAD TO SOME LOW CHANCE UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SE WEST
VIRGINIA.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS LATE
THURSDAY AS THIS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS, AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH OUT OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING SUNDAY.
2) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, WITH LOWER
CHANCES POSSIBLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
3) DRY CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY.
A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL LEAD TO AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST TO END THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LOOKS TO PUSH EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE SOUTHERN JET
STREAM IS EXPECTED TO GET STRUNG OUT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF. AS
THIS SOUTHERN TROUGH BECOMES STRUNG OUT, MID AND UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO AID IN SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG A
WARM FRONT THAT LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY, SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA, AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA BY FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY CREATE LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WARMEST IN THE LOW 50S
AREAWIDE, BUT THEN DECREASE INTO THE LOW 40S AND UPPER 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM EST TUESDAY...
VFR IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
BRING SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARD LWB/BLF LATE WITH LIGHT RAIN. RAIN
MAY ALSO REACH BCB/ROA AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS IN THE 5-12KFT RANGE,
THOUGH DAN MAY STAY SCATTERED MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD IN WV, BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO
MOST TERMINALS. WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP
SUB- VFR IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT CLEARING IN THE EAST. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SUB-VFR LIKELY MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1218 AM EST TUESDAY...
NOT AS MUCH WIND TODAY, BUT RH VALUES IN THE 20-25% RANGE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...BMG/CG/NF
SHORT TERM...EB
LONG TERM...EB
AVIATION...CG/WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP
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