810
FXUS61 KRNK 070634
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
134 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY,
RESULTING IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY
DECREASING AFTER SUNRISE.
2) MILD SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
2) RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY MONDAY, WITH SNOW THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE.
A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS TODAY, AMPLIFYING THIS
EVENING WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA
THROUGH DAYBREAK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
LATE EVENING. A MORE POTENT HIGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WITH AMPLIFY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PIVOT ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.
AS THE WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH NO TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE, BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS WILL BE ON THE WARMER
SIDE. EXPECTING HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM LOWER 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 40S IN THE EAST. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/LOW 30S BY MIDNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TAKING A LOOK AT VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA, MOST SUPPORT AN INITIAL P-TYPE AS RAIN, WITH A WARM LAYER
IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE PROFILE. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT FAVOR SNOW GROWTH WITH NO WARM NOSE
ADVERTISED, THUS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT COULD CERTAINLY
START AS ALL SNOW. THOSE THAT DO START AS RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN DYNAMICALLY COOLS FROM TOP
DOWN. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE LAST TO CHANGE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND MAY NOT TRANSITION UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE ON
MONDAY.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF RAIN TURNING TO SNOW EXISTS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE IT MAY TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW. THIS WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. EVEN IF IT DOES
TRANSITION, SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE
MUCH ACCUMULATION. MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VIRGINIA AND THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW, THUS EXPECTING THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. ROANOKE AND EAST TO
LYNCHBURG/DANVILLE WILL SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW, SO TOTALS WILL BE A BIT LOWER THERE. STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND,
SO FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS LIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I64 CORRIDOR IN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA.
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE
3000FT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SNOW LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
2. VERY COLD MONDAY NIGHT
3. QUIET UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT,
INITIALLY TAKING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO
ADVECT IN SOME GULF MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN,
BUT AS COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH IS SWEPT ACROSS, THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE WILL CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY TO SUPPORT A MOSTLY SNOW
EVENT GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE TIME FRAME OF THIS EVENT
HAS SLOWED DOWN IN RECENT GUIDANCE, THERE IS MORE TIME FOR THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR, AND THUS THE TREND HAS BEEN TO
INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE A
STRONG, NOTEWORTHY STORM, AS QPF IS STILL QUITE LOW, AND SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1-2" IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND LESS
THAN AN INCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHERE A RAIN SNOW MIX IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO MONDAY. TOTALS AND IMPACTS
WILL BE ANALYZED CLOSELY LEADING INTO THIS EVENT, AS THERE HAS
BEEN VARIABILITY IN MODEL RUNS, SO A FURTHER INCREASE IN SNOW
TOTALS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMONPLACE, WITH THE COLDEST
OCCURRING NEAR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A RELATIVELY TRANSIENT REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS
METEOROLOGICAL ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S, ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING SOME
SUNSHINE, WILL AID IN THAWING ANY REMAINING SNOW OR ICE COVERAGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO WINTRY SYSTEMS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE
MOUNTAINS ON WED/WED NIGHT.
2. A MORE ROBUST RAIN/SNOW SYSTEM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND/OR
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE REGIME OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN WITH ITS PARENT LOW LOCATED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
WITHIN THIS BROAD FLOW PATTERN, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS
BETTER CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND LOCATION THAN THE SECOND.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A WEDNESDAY EVENING CROSSING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING SHORTLY IN
ITS WAKE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
PRIMARILY AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AND LINGER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS (THANKS TO UPSLOPE FLOW) THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
SMALL AMOUNT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY REACH WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE VA/NC PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE IS MORE VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SECOND
SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE OFFERS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BECOMING INVOLVED IN THE PROCESS, AND
THUS AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOURCES AND WARM-NOSE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. A LOOK AT THE LATEST NCEP ENSEMBLE
500MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS OFFERS A LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
MEAN TIME FRAME FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS PLENTY OF SOLUTIONS FAVORING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY, OUR FORECAST WILL
REFLECT ONLY A RAIN VERSUS SNOW FORECAST RATHER THAN OTHER
WINTER P-TYPES. WE WILL HAVE INCREASING PROBABILITIES DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH VALUES MAXIMIZING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING, WE MAY BE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, HELPING TO HAVE
THE FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW/RAIN PRIMARILY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS SHOULD TRAIL OFF HEADING INTO
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EST SUNDAY...
AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
ANY FOG/FREEZING FOG EAST OF AN LYH-MTV-MWK LINE SHOULD CLEAR
UP BETWEEN 12-14Z. AFTER FOG DISSIPATED, EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
MONDAY: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS S- TO
THE AREA. PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS R- (OR A R-/S- MIX)
BEFORE CHANGING TO S-.
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY, REMAINING THIS WAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ035-
043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BMG
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