864
FXUS61 KRNK 071921
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
221 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER POSSIBLE. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
BY THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
..AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGE:
1) EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA WIDE GIVEN SOME
INCREASED EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS.
HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH SOME HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF FREEZING RAIN AS THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE GOOD COOLING ALOFT
AND A QUICK TRANSITION TO SUBFREEZING WETBULB/850 MB TEMPS SO
P-TYPE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SNOW WITH THIS EVENT. GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOME RATHER LARGE SPREADS OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WHEN LOOKING AT
THE INTERQUARTILE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE OF THE NBM,
THOUGH THE HREF HAS A TIGHTER SPREAD AND GENERALLY LOOKS TO
SUPPORT A 1-3 INCH RANGE. REACHED SIMILAR AMOUNTS WHEN
INITIALIZING WITH WPC, THEN BUMPING UP THE 12-18Z PERIOD AND
THEN GOING WITH NBM FOR THE 18-00Z PERIOD. HAVE EXPANDED THE
PREVIOUS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA WIDE ACCORDINGLY AND KEPT
THE 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM TUESDAY TIMING. MOST OF THE SNOW
COVERAGE COULD DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH WITH TEMPS
FALLING AND THEN DIPPING INTO THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT, BLACK ICE COULD BE A LINGERING CONCERN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE
MOUNTAINS ON WED/WED NIGHT.
MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE REGIME OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN WITH ITS PARENT LOW LOCATED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
WITHIN THIS BROAD FLOW PATTERN, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS
BETTER CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND LOCATION THAN THE SECOND.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A WEDNESDAY EVENING CROSSING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING SHORTLY IN
ITS WAKE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
PRIMARILY AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AND LINGER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS (THANKS TO UPSLOPE FLOW) THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
SMALL AMOUNT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY REACH WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE VA/NC PIEDMONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
..AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPSLOPE SHOWERS END THURSDAY
2) FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM EXPECTED, BUT IMPACTS UNCLEAR
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EXITS INTO EASTERN
CANADA AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN OH, THE DRIVING FLOW FOR UPSLOPE IN
THE MOUNTAINS WANES AND SHOWERS END ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY BRINGS A SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT DANGLING TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE MID-ATLANTIC, INCLUDING FOR US. WHILE
AMOUNTS AND SPECIFIC IMPACTS ARE UP FOR DEBATE, IT APPEARS THIS WILL
BE A SYSTEM THAT BEGINS AS RAIN FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN AND CHANGE MOST OF THE AREA OVER TO SNOW,
OR AT LEAST A MIX. CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE, BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE SEEMS ANTITHETICAL TO A FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET SITUATION.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER CLOSE REVIEW THIS WEEK TO
DETERMINE IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 125 AM EST SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN CONDITIONS
LOWERING LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW COVERAGE. EXPECTING CIGS LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR
ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBYS WITH SNOW MAINLY STARTING AFTER ABOUT
08Z MONDAY. LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS INITIALLY
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW BECOMING NE GENERALLY 4-10 KTS BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY, REMAINING THIS WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURSDAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/AB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AB/BMG
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