971
FXUS61 KRNK 080313
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1013 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
TOTALS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE. DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THURSDAY. A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1010 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR ROANOKE, FRANKLIN, BOTETOURT
COUNTIES AND EAST TO BUCKINGHAM AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES, FROM 5
AM THROUGH 5 PM TOMORROW.
2) SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM, CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY
AND TAPERING OFF BY THE AFTERNOON.
3) AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL VA, LEADING TO HIGHER TOTALS, IN THE 3 INCH TO 5
INCH RANGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS
IN VA, INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HIGHER RAIN AND
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THEREFORE, A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES FROM THE ROANOKE VALLEY AND EASTWARD
INTO THE PIEDMONT. ELSEWHERE, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT, FOR BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES. NO MATTER THE
AMOUNT, PLEASE USE CAUTION DURING THE MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING
COMMUTES, AS ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLICK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BELOW...
AS OF 640 PM EST SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THUS, HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US OUR
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TOTALS STILL
LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE SLICK,
AND VISIBILITY WILL BE LOW IN THE FALLING SNOW. SLOW DOWN, AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO GET TO YOUR DESTINATION IF
NEEDING TO TRAVEL EARLY TOMORROW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...
HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH SOME HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF FREEZING RAIN AS THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE GOOD COOLING
ALOFT AND A QUICK TRANSITION TO SUBFREEZING WETBULB/850 MB TEMPS
SO P-TYPE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SNOW WITH THIS EVENT. GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME RATHER LARGE SPREADS OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WHEN
LOOKING AT THE INTERQUARTILE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE OF
THE NBM, THOUGH THE HREF HAS A TIGHTER SPREAD AND GENERALLY
LOOKS TO SUPPORT A 1-3 INCH RANGE. REACHED SIMILAR AMOUNTS WHEN
INITIALIZING WITH WPC, THEN BUMPING UP THE 12-18Z PERIOD AND
THEN GOING WITH NBM FOR THE 18-00Z PERIOD. HAVE EXPANDED THE
PREVIOUS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA WIDE ACCORDINGLY AND KEPT
THE 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM TUESDAY TIMING. MOST OF THE SNOW
COVERAGE COULD DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH WITH TEMPS
FALLING AND THEN DIPPING INTO THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT, BLACK ICE COULD BE A LINGERING CONCERN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE
MOUNTAINS ON WED/WED NIGHT.
MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE REGIME OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN WITH ITS PARENT LOW LOCATED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
WITHIN THIS BROAD FLOW PATTERN, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS
BETTER CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND LOCATION THAN THE SECOND.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A WEDNESDAY EVENING CROSSING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING SHORTLY IN
ITS WAKE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
PRIMARILY AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AND LINGER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS (THANKS TO UPSLOPE FLOW) THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
SMALL AMOUNT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY REACH WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE VA/NC PIEDMONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPSLOPE SHOWERS END THURSDAY
2) FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM EXPECTED, BUT IMPACTS UNCLEAR
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EXITS INTO EASTERN
CANADA AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN OH, THE DRIVING FLOW FOR UPSLOPE IN
THE MOUNTAINS WANES AND SHOWERS END ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY BRINGS A SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT DANGLING TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE MID-ATLANTIC, INCLUDING FOR US. WHILE
AMOUNTS AND SPECIFIC IMPACTS ARE UP FOR DEBATE, IT APPEARS THIS WILL
BE A SYSTEM THAT BEGINS AS RAIN FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN AND CHANGE MOST OF THE AREA OVER TO SNOW,
OR AT LEAST A MIX. CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE, BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE SEEMS ANTITHETICAL TO A FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET SITUATION.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER CLOSE REVIEW THIS WEEK TO
DETERMINE IMPACTS.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST SUNDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS VFR SO FAR THIS EVENING, THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AFTER 03Z MONDAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR FIRST
FOR THE VA AND NC PIEDMONT BY 09Z, THEN FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
BY 12Z. SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY 09Z, AND
EXPAND EAST BY 11Z OR SO. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DROP WITH THE
SNOW, AND THOUGH SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT, SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE, AND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES
EVEN MORE. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, AS MODELS HAVE
TRENDING SLIGHTLY EARLIER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
SNOW STARTS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND 20Z, AND SO LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE, BUT STILL SUB-VFR. NOT
ANTICIPATING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD VFR UNTIL TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST, IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL VA
PIEDMONT, MAINLY IMPACTING KLYH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE, BUT LOW FOR SPECIFIC VISIBILITY
VALUES.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY, REMAINING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURSDAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020-024-032-043-044-058.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ022-
023-033>035-045>047-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
SYNOPSIS...AS/BMG
NEAR TERM...AB/AS
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AB/AS/BMG
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