081
FXUS61 KRNK 080637
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
137 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AGAIN BY THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SNOW TODAY, WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
2) WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED, WITH SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL LIKELY.
3) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL INDUCE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION BY 3AM TO 5AM. THIS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, WITH SNOW
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S, WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO MOVE
IN OVERHEAD. 00Z RAOB STILL INDICATES A SHALLOW WARM LAYER JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND BELOW 850MB, WHICH WOULD INDICATE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN OCCURS AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. ANY RAIN
SHOULD BE BRIEF AS INDICATED BY THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS ALL SNOW ONCE THE COLUMN COMPLETELY SATURATES. THIS
TRANSITION WILL FIRST OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE
SUNRISE, THEN WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS BETTER
LIFT MOVES IN, SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INTENSIFY, WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN WITHIN 700MB AS ADVERTISED ACROSS VARIOUS
GLOBALS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE. WHILE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HARD TO
PINPOINT, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS IT WILL BE WITHIN A ZONE FROM THE
NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS, EASTWARD TO LYNCHBURG. WITHIN THIS
GENERAL ZONE, EXPECT SOME OF THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SOME
OCCASIONAL 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL TAPER DOWN ON THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS ZONE.
AS SNOWFALL CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S, AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE WITH SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LIKELY. SNOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING, BUT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST, WITH MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER BY 7PM TO 9PM.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD AGAIN, BASED OFF CURRENT
00Z GUIDANCE. A ZONE OF 3 TO 6 INCHES SEEMS LIKELY FROM THE NEW
RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS, EAST TO LYNCHBURG AND APPOMATTOX. SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TALLER
PEAKS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE NOW
EXCEEDING 50% OF 4 OR MORE INCHES WITHIN THIS AREA.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVENT HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS...BUT 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD STILL
FALL. VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA
BORDER, OUTSIDE OF THE NW NC MOUNTAINS. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY IF HEAVIER TOTALS WILL MATERIALIZE, BUT OVERALL 3
TO 4 INCHES SEEMS RATHER LIKELY...BUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS TOTALLY
NOT OUT OF QUESTION HERE EITHER. NO PLANS TO CHANGE THE CURRENT
HEADLINES THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. ANY UNTREATED ROADWAYS THAT MAY BE JUST WET
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY BRING RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE
MOUNTAINS ON WED/WED NIGHT.
MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE REGIME OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN WITH ITS PARENT LOW LOCATED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
WITHIN THIS BROAD FLOW PATTERN, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS
BETTER CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND LOCATION THAN THE SECOND.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A WEDNESDAY EVENING CROSSING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING SHORTLY IN
ITS WAKE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
PRIMARILY AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AND LINGER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS (THANKS TO UPSLOPE FLOW) THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
SMALL AMOUNT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY REACH WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE VA/NC PIEDMONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPSLOPE SHOWERS END THURSDAY
2) FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM EXPECTED, BUT IMPACTS UNCLEAR
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EXITS INTO EASTERN
CANADA AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN OH, THE DRIVING FLOW FOR UPSLOPE IN
THE MOUNTAINS WANES AND SHOWERS END ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY BRINGS A SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT DANGLING TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE MID-ATLANTIC, INCLUDING FOR US. WHILE
AMOUNTS AND SPECIFIC IMPACTS ARE UP FOR DEBATE, IT APPEARS THIS WILL
BE A SYSTEM THAT BEGINS AS RAIN FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN AND CHANGE MOST OF THE AREA OVER TO SNOW,
OR AT LEAST A MIX. CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE, BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE SEEMS ANTITHETICAL TO A FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET SITUATION.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER CLOSE REVIEW THIS WEEK TO
DETERMINE IMPACTS.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST SUNDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS VFR SO FAR THIS EVENING, THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AFTER 03Z MONDAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR FIRST
FOR THE VA AND NC PIEDMONT BY 09Z, THEN FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
BY 12Z. SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY 09Z, AND
EXPAND EAST BY 11Z OR SO. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DROP WITH THE
SNOW, AND THOUGH SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT, SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE, AND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES
EVEN MORE. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, AS MODELS HAVE
TRENDING SLIGHTLY EARLIER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
SNOW STARTS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND 20Z, AND SO LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE, BUT STILL SUB-VFR. NOT
ANTICIPATING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD VFR UNTIL TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST, IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL VA
PIEDMONT, MAINLY IMPACTING KLYH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE, BUT LOW FOR SPECIFIC VISIBILITY
VALUES.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY, REMAINING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURSDAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020-024-032-043-044-058.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ022-023-033>035-045>047-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
SYNOPSIS...AS/BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AB/AS/BMG
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