498
FXUS61 KRNK 082314
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
614 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING ENDING THE SNOW.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
ARRIVES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN WELL BELOW
NORMAL COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 458 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WINTER STORM WARNING DOWNGRADED TO ADVISORY. SNOW TAPERING
OFF BY THIS EVENING. AN ADDITION INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FOR MOST.
2) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL KEEP UNTREATED
ROADS SLICK.
KEY MESSAGE 1:
SNOW IS BEGINNING TO TAPER TO VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FOR MOST.
AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MAIN FORCING
IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE LET THE WARNING EXPIRE AND
CHANGED TO AN ADVISORY. MAY CANCEL THE ADVISORY EARLIER ONCE
SNOW ENDS, BUT A STATEMENT ABOUT BLACK ICE/SNOW COVERED ROADS
WILL BE NEEDED INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WAVE OF MODERATE SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
SO FAR HAVE HAD MULTIPLE REPORTS NEAR 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION SO
FAR. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A DECENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SO NOT SURPRISED IF HEAVIER
AREAS/BANDS COULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUICK SNOW RATE. COVERAGE HAS
CURRENTLY FILLED IN SOME FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER VORT
MAX AND THIS COULD DROP ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. CAMS SUPPORT COVERAGE LARGELY
DIMINISHING BY ABOUT 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 2:
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE THREAT OF BLACK ICE FOR TUESDAY
MORNING AS COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE USHERED IN FROM THE NE FROM THE
BUILDING CAD WEDGE. MUCH OF THE CWA HAS BEEN IN THE LOW 30S BUT THE
20S HAVE STARTED TO IMPINGE UPON THE FAR NORTH AND A DECREASING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FROM NOW INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA
IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE TEENS NEAR THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME SO ROADS
COULD STILL BE HAZARDOUS IF ANY SLUSH OR REMNANT MOISTURE IS LEFT ON
THE SURFACE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) QUIET AND COOL
2) QUICK MOVING FRONT BRINGS UPSLOPE SNOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS CALM AND PREVENT ANY UNSETTLED WEATHER. TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY TO HELP THAW OUT AFTER SOME
EXTREME COLD AND SNOW EARLIER IN THE WEEK. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST,
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. A FRONT WILL VEER OUR WINDS TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST, BRINGING UPSLOPE AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS LATE ON
WEDNESDAY. UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN, BUT TURN OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR TAKES HOLD. THE
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES, BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY RECEDE TOWARDS WEST VIRGINIA. AN INCH OR TWO IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV COULD STICK, WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN OTHER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPSLOPE SHOWERS TAPER FRIDAY
2) WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE BROADER IMPACTS THAN JUST UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FRIDAY, AND WITH IT, CUT OFF
UPSLOPE SNOW EFFECTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER ABOVE
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT,
ALLOWING A GREATER IMPACT THAN THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRETCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, AND THE GENERAL PATTERN OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
OR SO, THE FORECAST WILL MONITOR SNOW AND ICE CHANCES CLOSELY FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW, JUST TRYING TO NAIL DOWN TIMING, AS THIS IS
ABOUT A 24 HOUR DISCREPANCY IN THE FRONT'S TIMING FROM GUIDANCE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. ONCE WE FEEL CONFIDENT ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL
IMPACT US, THE FORECAST CAN FOCUS ON WHAT THOSE IMPACTS WILL BE.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 612 PM EST MONDAY...
SNOW TAPERING OFF BUT SOME MVFR TO IFR VSBYS STILL POSSIBLE TIL
02Z FOR THE TERMINALS. THROUGH THE NIGHT AM ANTICIPATING CIGS
STAYING AROUND 1KFT OR LOWER AT ALL SITES. SOME VSBY RESTRICTION
POSSIBLE AS WINDS ABATE. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CIGS AFTER 15Z
TUESDAY TO VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURSDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SATURDAY
OFF AND ON.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507-508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...AB/BMG/WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AB/WP
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