887
FXUS61 KRNK 090750
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
250 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY,
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY'S MID-ATLANTIC
SNOWFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER
RIDGES FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY OF
NORTH CAROLINA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
A MIXTURE OF MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONT DURING THE COMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 205 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DECREASING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
2) HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S TODAY WILL LIMIT SNOWMELT.
3) LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH LINGERING POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S. AS SUCH, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE ON ROADWAYS, THOUGH ANY ROADS ACROSS THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK AND LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS GIVEN YESTERDAY'S SNOWFALL.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR WILL BRING AN END TO LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY
SUNRISE, WITH CLOUD COVER DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING. GIVEN
PASSAGE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT ANY MELTING OF
SNOW AND ICE OFF OF ROADWAY SURFACES, THOUGH ANY SUNSHINE WE
RECEIVE TODAY WILL HELP. THE DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S BY AROUND MIDNIGHT,
WITH TEMPERATURES THEN SUBTLETY WARMING THROUGH DAWN WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING UPSLOPE SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY.
2) CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A DRY PERIOD ON SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN WINDFLOW FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LATEST FORECAST
DATA SUGGESTS THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. LATEST DATA STILL SUPPORTS
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1" TO 3" FALLING FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES FROM SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA, THOUGH
TOTALS IN THE 4" TO 5" RANGE ARE LOOKING MORE PROBABLE ACROSS
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. LESSER TOTALS ARE FORECAST EASTWARD,
MAINLY DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES
AS FAR AS THE PARKWAY THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY BEFORE SNOW
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES FROM EAST TO WEST.
WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING YET ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN LIGHT, BUT WITH COVERAGE HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
WELL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE PIEDMONT.
SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 240 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR FOR THIS WINTER
SEASON.
THE NEXT ROUND OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS THE
LATEST WEATHER MODEL DATA IS COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT
WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY, AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT IS NOTED THAT, WHILE THIS AIRMASS
WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR TO THE REGION, THE ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS COLD FOR THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC AS THE FORECAST DATA WAS PRESENTING 24 HOURS AGO.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 245 AM EST TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING, WITH SOME AIRPORTS REPORTING OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE, OR REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONLY GRADUALLY THROUGH SUNRISE,
AND THEN IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY THEREAFTER, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALL AIRPORT ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z, WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF 09/06Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH WILL
LIKELY LAST ON AND OFF INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...NF/WP
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