269
FXUS61 KRNK 091410
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
910 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY,
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY'S MID-ATLANTIC
SNOWFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER
RIDGES FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY OF
NORTH CAROLINA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
A MIXTURE OF MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONT DURING THE COMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 900 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DECREASING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
2) HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S TODAY WILL LIMIT SNOWMELT.
3) LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH RNK/GSO INDICATE LINGERING MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB...WITHIN 5KFT OF THE GROUND...CAPPED BY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. DUE TO LACK OF ANY STRONG ADVECTION, CLOUDS TO
PERSIST LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST, SO WILL CUT TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS
LITTLE OR NO MELTING TO OCCUR FROM YESTERDAY'S WINTER
INTERLUDE.
THE DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES THEN SUBTLETY WARMING THROUGH DAWN WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER DAY WITH RESPECT TO MELTING
POTENTIAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AS OPPOSED TO THE 30S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING UPSLOPE SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY.
2) CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A DRY PERIOD ON SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN WINDFLOW FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LATEST FORECAST
DATA SUGGESTS THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. LATEST DATA STILL SUPPORTS
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1" TO 3" FALLING FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES FROM SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA, THOUGH
TOTALS IN THE 4" TO 5" RANGE ARE LOOKING MORE PROBABLE ACROSS
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. LESSER TOTALS ARE FORECAST EASTWARD,
MAINLY DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES
AS FAR AS THE PARKWAY THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY BEFORE SNOW
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES FROM EAST TO WEST.
WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING YET ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN LIGHT, BUT WITH COVERAGE HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
WELL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE PIEDMONT.
SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 240 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR FOR THIS WINTER
SEASON.
THE NEXT ROUND OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS THE
LATEST WEATHER MODEL DATA IS COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT
WILL FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY, AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT IS NOTED THAT, WHILE THIS AIRMASS
WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR TO THE REGION, THE ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS COLD FOR THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC AS THE FORECAST DATA WAS PRESENTING 24 HOURS AGO.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EST TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING, WITH SOME AIRPORTS REPORTING OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE, OR REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONLY GRADUALLY THROUGH SUNRISE,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SOME LINGERING MVFR
POSSIBLE UNTIL NOON OR SO, BUT THEN EXPECTING VFR THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH WILL
LIKELY LAST ON AND OFF INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...BMG/NF/WP
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