791
FXUS61 KRNK 100624
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
124 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING WIND, AND TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING A MIXTURE OF MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW ON FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT DURING THE COMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIND AND SHOWERS TO THE
AREA TODAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
3) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
3) SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THURSDAY FOR THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT, A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY AND DROP SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, EVENTUALLY CROSSING
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TODAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD
INITIALLY BE RAIN, BUT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT FILTERS IN, RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, SO ANY RAIN/SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES, OTHER THAN A SMALL
EXPANSION OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES INTO NW NORTH CAROLINA.
STILL EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) OF SNOW
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY
IN WESTERN GREENBRIER WHERE A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. GENERALLY 5 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED, BUT WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY SEEING 6 TO 8 INCHES. DRIFTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, GUSTING INTO
THE 20 MPH RANGE, WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE.
AS THE FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 40MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
RIDGES. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
2) BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG/NORTHWEST OF I-81 ON FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SNOW TOTALS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, FROM A
DUSTING TO AT MOST A HALF INCH. HOWEVER, FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
1-3" CAN BE EXPECTED, AND FOR THE MOUNTAIN TOPS AND WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY, 4-8" IS POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
VERY WINDY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, GUSTING TO 35-45 MPH AT TIMES, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE SNOW,
COULD SEE BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS. SNOW CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE QUIET, WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE BREAK IS BRIEF, AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. COLD AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE, AND
THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW FRIDAY MORNING TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE NORTH OF THE NC/VA STATE LINE, BUT THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE, PER USUAL, ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH QUICKLY AND IS GONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
AGAIN BE LIGHT, WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE ALONG I-81,
WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS BEING IN WV, WHERE 1-3" IS POSSIBLE. WESTERN
GREENBRIER WILL AGAIN BE THE HOT SPOT, WITH 3-5". FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER RETURN TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S EACH
DAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ON
THURSDAY. LOWS REMAIN CONSISTENT, IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S EACH MORNING
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
2) QUIET WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT REMAINS CHILLY.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUIET DAY, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE WEEKEND, AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE LOCATION
AND STRENGTH OF A POTENTIAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A FRONT AND UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVE THROUGH. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONGST MODELS,
POPS ARE KEPT AROUND 30-40%, MAINLY FOR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK, THEN THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACTS TO OUR
AREA, BUT IF IT STRENGTHENS, SNOW TOTALS COULD RISE. UPSLOPE SNOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WESTERN FACING MOUNTAINS,
PARTICULARLY IN WV THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DO AGREE THAT
BEHIND THE SUNDAY SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION AND KEEP DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH IT WILL BE COLD. SKIES FINALLY CLEAR OUT FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN NEARLY A WEEK AREA-WIDE, WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING
A STRANGE YELLOW BALL IN THE SKY WE CALL THE SUN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AT LEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. SATURDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
40S/50S, WITH SOME 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FROPA ON SUNDAY
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL DRASTICALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S/30S, AND 40S FOR THE PIEDMONT. BY MONDAY, HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 20S/30S AREA-WIDE, SOMEWHAT RECOVERING INTO THE
30S/40S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO WIDELY VARY, IN THE
20S/30S AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS FOR MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE RECOVERING INTO THE TEENS/20S
FOR TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS
FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE GREENBRIER AND NEW
RIVER VALLEYS. SUB-VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
DAYBREAK. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS AS MIXING INCREASES DUE TO
AN INCREASING JET.
CONCERN THIS MORNING ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 50KTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START PICK UP AFTER 15Z, WITH GUSTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON RUNNING 20-30KTS. EXPECT RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AT
BLF/LWB AFTER 20Z, WITH CIGS SINKING TO LOW END MVFR/HIGH END
IFR. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS
WITH BLF/LWB LIKELY AT LIFR/IFR. PERIODS OF SNOW MAY EXTEND AS
FAR EAST AS BCB WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM
INTERMITTENT SNOW SQUALLS.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
COULD BRING SUB-VFR WX/CIGS/VSBYS FRIDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SOMEWHAT OF A REPRIEVE SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM ARRIVES SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY IS
LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS/WX.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ042-043.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG/WP
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