907
FXUS61 KRNK 100634
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
134 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. AFTERWARDS, TWO MORE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS DURING FRIDAY
AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DRY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIND AND SHOWERS TO THE
AREA TODAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
3) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
3) SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THURSDAY FOR THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT, A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY AND DROP SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, EVENTUALLY CROSSING
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TODAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD
INITIALLY BE RAIN, BUT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT FILTERS IN, RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, SO ANY RAIN/SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES, OTHER THAN A SMALL
EXPANSION OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES INTO NW NORTH CAROLINA.
STILL EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) OF SNOW
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY
IN WESTERN GREENBRIER WHERE A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. GENERALLY 5 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED, BUT WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY SEEING 6 TO 8 INCHES. DRIFTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, GUSTING INTO
THE 20 MPH RANGE, WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE.
AS THE FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 40 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
RIDGES. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE ON THURSDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS.
2) A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
3) AFTER A DRY SATURDAY, A THIRD CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE TO
PRODUCE MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
WILL BE IMPACTED BY THREE CLIPPER SYSTEMS DUE TO A
RELENTLESSLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE FIRST
CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT ON THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING
FROM BOONE TO LEWISBURG. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE ON THURSDAY
EVENING, THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO PROVIDE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. NOTABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES LIKELY ON THE TABLE. AFTER
ANOTHER LULL ON SATURDAY, THE THIRD CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ENTER BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THE FRESH SNOW COVER, PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS DURING THE PASSAGE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEMS, AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER WARRANTS KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 30S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE UPPER
20S. A SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING MILDER AIR ON SATURDAY SHOULD
BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TOWARDS THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE FADING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.
2) WIND CHILL VALUES WILL PLUMMET BELOW ZERO ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
3) DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE FROM THE DEEP FREEZE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON SUNDAY DUE TO A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DEPARTING OFFSHORE. SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FROM BOONE
TO LEWISBURG THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. WHILE THE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET. DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES FALLING BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD DIVE TO
-15 DEGREES IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. MEANWHILE, THE
PIEDMONT COULD EXPERIENCE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE CONTROL ON MONDAY TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FINALLY COMING TO A
HALT, INCREASED SUNSHINE SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL TREND OF
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A MILDER SOUTHWEST BREEZE MAY APPROACH
BY TUESDAY ONCE HIGH PRESSURE REACHES THE EAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE GREENBRIER AND NEW
RIVER VALLEYS. SUB-VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
DAYBREAK. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS AS MIXING INCREASES DUE TO
AN INCREASING JET.
CONCERN THIS MORNING ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 50KTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START PICK UP AFTER 15Z, WITH GUSTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON RUNNING 20-30KTS. EXPECT RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AT
BLF/LWB AFTER 20Z, WITH CIGS SINKING TO LOW END MVFR/HIGH END
IFR. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS
WITH BLF/LWB LIKELY AT LIFR/IFR. PERIODS OF SNOW MAY EXTEND AS
FAR EAST AS BCB WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM
INTERMITTENT SNOW SQUALLS.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
COULD BRING SUB-VFR WX/CIGS/VSBYS FRIDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SOMEWHAT OF A REPRIEVE SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM ARRIVES SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY IS
LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS/WX.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ042-043.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/PW
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG/WP
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