115
FXUS61 KRNK 101919
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
219 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST,
BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATING SNOW,
ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW, PRIMARILY
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF BITTER COLD FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIND AND SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
3) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE APPALACHIAN
DIVIDE FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD THROUGH
WESTERN GRAYSON INTO TAZEWELL, BLUEFIELD, AND ALONG THE I-77
CORRIDOR NORTH OF PRINCETON, WV.
3) A BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTHWEST
OF LEWISBURG, TOWARD SNOW SHOE WV.
BUMPY WEATHER RIDE THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS 990 MB LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST, STRENGTHENING TO 985 MB AS IT
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY COLD BLUSTERY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN AT MOST EAST OF THE
ROANOKE VALLEY. STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS TEND TO DRY THINGS OUT
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND EVEN AFTER THE COLD AIR ARRIVES,
ANYTHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WOULD BE FLURRIES.
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, OR WEST OF THE ROANOKE VALLEY,
THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY
SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AS COLD AIR ARRIVES
TOWARD SUNSET, MOISTURE SHOULD CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH
IMPACTS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BEFORE WORKING
DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM, EXPECTING GUSTY (35 TO 50 MPH) NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE MOISTURE ON THE
WINDWARD SLOPES OR WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE. THIS IS
WHERE OVERNIGHT SNOW TOTALS OF 1-3" MAY OCCUR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TRAVEL HAZARDS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW...AN AREA THAT INCLUDES THE
NC HIGH COUNTRY UP THROUGH MOUNT ROGERS, BURKES GARDEN,
TAZEWELL, BLUEFIELD, AND FROM PRINCETON NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-77
CORRIDOR. A PERIOD OF EXTREME WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS NORTHWEST OF LEWISBURG WHERE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL OF 4-8" WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO PRODUCE
NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A BLUSTERY COLD DAY WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING TO FLURRIES. ANY CLEARING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED PER NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS FOLLOWING ON THE HEALS OF
THIS ONE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SUBSEQUENT SMALL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH, KEEPING SNOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS NEAR NEBRASKA AND HEAD SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS TRACK PUTS OUR AREA NORTH OF THE LOW, IN THE COLD
SECTOR, AND WITH AID OF A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WILL
CAUSE SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE NIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY TRACKING THE SNOW FOR AREAS
NORTH OF US-460, BUT HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL BE LOCATED THERE, OR AROUND THE NC/VA
STATE LINE. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK, WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST ALL OF OUR AREA IN VA TO SEE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW, ALONG WITH THE NC MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE REST OF NC WILL
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN MISS OUT, THOUGH FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY, WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SOUTH OF US-460 BEFORE TURNING BACK TO SNOW THAT EVENING. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF WV, FROM A DUSTING NEAR NC TO
AROUND AN INCH ALONG I-81 AND TO THE WV STATE LINE. IN WV, 1-3" CAN
BE EXPECTED, WITH WESTERN GREENBRIER SEEING 3-5". HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BRIEFLY RIDGES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN GREENBRIER COUNTY
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MORE SNOW CHANCES TO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, AND FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
30S/40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW SPOTS IN THE NC PIEDMONT MAY
REACH INTO THE LOW 50S SATURDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S TO LOW
30S INTO THE WEEKEND, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LINGERING SNOW SUNDAY, THEN QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
2) TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH LINGERING SNOW ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. VERY COLD AIR WILL
EMBARK ON THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY WITH VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT. SNOW TAPERS OFF MID-MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
LASTING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN FACING MOUNTAINS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN FULLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA, WITH A BREEZY
AFTERNOON EXPECTED. GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT WHEN WINDS DO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NO RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS A PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY
WILL SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY, AND ALTHOUGH HIGHS
WILL OFFICIALLY IN THE 20S/30S, IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS/20S
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS THEN STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH 20S/30S FOR MONDAY, REACHING INTO THE 40S/50S BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD, IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN COLDER, IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE PIEDMONT DOWN TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE NEGATIVE
TEENS FOR WIND CHILLS. LOWS MODERATE, INTO THE TEENS FOR TUESDAY
MORNING, AND INTO THE 20S MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TERMINALS JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE BEING SHADOWED BY
THIS STRONG WIND ALOFT, SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LLWS UNTIL
WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. IN GENERAL EXPECTING WIND TO REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS...THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH BLF-ROA CORRIDOR BETWEEN
NOW AND SUNSET, THEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNSET. PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW VCNTY OF BLF...AND HEAVY
SNOW WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTHWEST
OF LEWISBURG. MORE SPECIFICALLY, EXPECT RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AT
BLF/LWB AFTER 20Z, WITH CIGS SINKING TO LOW END MVFR/HIGH END
IFR. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS
WITH BLF/LWB LIKELY AT LIFR/IFR. PERIODS OF SNOW MAY EXTEND AS
FAR EAST AS BCB WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM
INTERMITTENT SNOW SQUALLS.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SUB-VFR WX/CIGS/VSBYS FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOMEWHAT OF A REPRIEVE SATURDAY
BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
BEYOND FRIDAY IS LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS/WX. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
PERIOD OF BITTER COLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-
009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-
018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ042-
043.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM
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