754
FXUS61 KRNK 110551
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1251 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACCUMULATING SNOW, ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW,
PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN VIRGINA. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF
BITTER COLD FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1230 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING, TAPERING OFF
BY NOON.
2) WINDS WILL RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
3) LIGHT SNOW FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT.
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH IN BANDS, REDUCING VISIBILITY
AT TIMES. HEAVIER SNOW STILL CONFINED TO WESTERN GREENBRIER
WHERE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH JUST SOME
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES CONTINUING. NORTHWEST FLOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE, THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH SUN FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TODAY. AS A RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION, HIGHS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING TODAY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. FURTHER EAST, SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CREEP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL LESSEN BY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE LOWS FALL IN THE MID TO LOW 20S. SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAY APPROACH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT,
BUT IT WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THE BULK OF THE SNOW FROM THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SUBSEQUENT SMALL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH, KEEPING SNOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS NEAR NEBRASKA AND HEAD SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS TRACK PUTS OUR AREA NORTH OF THE LOW, IN THE COLD
SECTOR, AND WITH AID OF A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WILL
CAUSE SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE NIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY TRACKING THE SNOW FOR AREAS
NORTH OF US-460, BUT HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL BE LOCATED THERE, OR AROUND THE NC/VA
STATE LINE. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK, WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST ALL OF OUR AREA IN VA TO SEE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW, ALONG WITH THE NC MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE REST OF NC WILL
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN MISS OUT, THOUGH FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY, WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SOUTH OF US-460 BEFORE TURNING BACK TO SNOW THAT EVENING. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF WV, FROM A DUSTING NEAR NC TO
AROUND AN INCH ALONG I-81 AND TO THE WV STATE LINE. IN WV, 1-3" CAN
BE EXPECTED, WITH WESTERN GREENBRIER SEEING 3-5". HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BRIEFLY RIDGES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN GREENBRIER COUNTY
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MORE SNOW CHANCES TO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, AND FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
30S/40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW SPOTS IN THE NC PIEDMONT MAY
REACH INTO THE LOW 50S SATURDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S TO LOW
30S INTO THE WEEKEND, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LINGERING SNOW SUNDAY, THEN QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
2) TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH LINGERING SNOW ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. VERY COLD AIR WILL
EMBARK ON THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY WITH VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT. SNOW TAPERS OFF MID-MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
LASTING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN FACING MOUNTAINS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN FULLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA, WITH A BREEZY
AFTERNOON EXPECTED. GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT WHEN WINDS DO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NO RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS A PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY
WILL SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY, AND ALTHOUGH HIGHS
WILL OFFICIALLY IN THE 20S/30S, IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS/20S
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS THEN STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH 20S/30S FOR MONDAY, REACHING INTO THE 40S/50S BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD, IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN COLDER, IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE PIEDMONT DOWN TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE NEGATIVE
TEENS FOR WIND CHILLS. LOWS MODERATE, INTO THE TEENS FOR TUESDAY
MORNING, AND INTO THE 20S MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAYBREAK OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
MVFR, TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR, AS BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE, ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE STRATUS. FURTHER EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS ...FOR ROA/LYH/DAN CONTINUED VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
MVFR/IFR FROM TNB/BCB/BLF/LWB SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
NOON TODAY, BUT LEANING TOWARDS MOSTLY MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK AS
SNOW SHOWER BEGIN TO COME TO AND END. BCB SHOULD RETURN TO VFR,
BUT MVFR STRATUS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR BLF AND POSSIBLY LWB
THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN VERY GUSTY THIS MORNING, BUT WILL LESSEN
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GUSTS IN THE 30KT RANGE WILL REMAIN
LIKELY. LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SUB-VFR WX/CIGS/VSBYS FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOMEWHAT OF A REPRIEVE SATURDAY
BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
BEYOND FRIDAY IS LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS/WX. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
PERIOD OF BITTER COLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042-043.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG
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