499
FXUS61 KRNK 112017
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY, AND WILL SUPPORT A NARROW AXIS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG,
EASTWARD TO LYNCHBURG. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA TO INCLUDE BOTH
THE I-81 AND HIGHWAY 460 CORRIDORS. BEYOND FRIDAY, AN ARCTIC
FRONT IS FORECAST CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A FEW
DAYS OF BITTER COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBZERO WIND CHILLS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SNOW RETURNS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF WV/VA.
2) A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS EFFECT ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460 AND WEST OF I-81 LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
3) EXPECT WINTRY IMPACTS TO THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING WEST TO EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND AND IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF OF 0.20 TO 0.50
INCHES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THIS TO
FALL PRIMARILY AS SNOW...SO ON A 10:1 CONVERSION THAT WOULD
YIELD 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. ATTM FEEL THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
BE WEST OF I-81 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
FARTHER EAST SINCE THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.
ONSET OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, THEN REACH AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...CONTINUING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGH FOR THE 460 CORRIDOR
AND DECREASES RAPIDLY AS YOU HEAD SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE CAROLINAS FROM THIS
SYSTEM. COUNTIES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR JUST NORTH OF THE
VA/NC BORDER MAY RECEIVE A DUSTING TO AN INCH...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY HEADLINE ATTM. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-64 TOWARD NOVA...IMPACTS FARTHER NORTH WILL GO
DOWN AS WELL. THIS IS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A LIMITED CORRIDOR
OF IMPACT THAT HAPPENS TO INTERSECT OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING DURING THE TIME THE SNOW
IS FALLING FRIDAY. AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE ANY SNOW SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 30S FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
3) BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT, WELL BELOW ZERO WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
SOME LINGERING FLURRIES WILL LINGER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS OUT OF THE REGION. WESTERN
GREENBRIER MAY HOLD ON TO FLURRIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THEY
FINALLY TAPER OFF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY, WITH A QUIET DAY EXPECTED AND NO
PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARRIVE IN OUR WV
COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY EVENING. AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
HAVE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW INITIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH,
WHICH WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND ALLOW FOR SNOW TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US-460 AS THE UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AND MOVES EAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A GAP IN SNOW FOR AREAS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, ESPECIALLY
NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OF WINDS DRYING THE AIR OUT. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THERE COULD MIX WITH RAIN. SNOW TAPERS
OFF AREA-WIDE SUNDAY MORNING, AS VERY COLD AND DRY AIR POURS INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES, AS THEY WILL REDUCE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, GUSTING TO 35+ MPH ALONG THE
RIDGETOPS THROUGH THE NIGHT, BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY, ALLOWING WIND GUSTS TO REDUCE TO UNDER 20 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S/40S, AND EVEN SOME LOW 50S FOR THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE HIGHS FOR SUNDAY OCCURRING DURING THE NIGHT. WHILE HIGHS
MAY ACTUALLY BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY, THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S, LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO
AROUND 30. SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE IN THE 30S, BUT THE LOW FOR
THE DAY WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD INTO MONDAY
MORNING LOWS AS WELL. THOSE LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ANYWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH TEENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE PIEDMONT, WHILE FALLING TO BELOW ZERO WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE 10-20 BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, WITH WESTERN GREENBRIER AND MT. ROGERS POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS
-25 DEGREES. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BARRING
ANY CHANGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FRIGID START TO THE WEEK, MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEEK.
2) QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK, RAIN CHANCES POTENTIALLY RETURN
THURSDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, KEEPING COLD AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US BY TUESDAY, AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ADVECT MUCH
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD,
THOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE THURSDAY COULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS
TO FORM, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE A WEEK
OUT FOR THIS IS LOW, SO POPS ARE KEPT AROUND 20-30% FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, INCREASING TO AROUND 40% IN WV.
AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, A LARGE PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES FROM BELOW
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON MONDAY REMAIN VERY COLD, IN THE
20S/30S DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A STEADY INCREASE OCCURS EACH
DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S TUESDAY, 40S/50S FOR WEDNESDAY, AND
AREA-WIDE 50S ON THURSDAY, AND SOME AREAS COULD TOP 60 DEGREES IN
THE PIEDMONT. LOWS ALSO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK, FROM THE
TEENS/20S TUESDAY MORNING, INTO THE 30S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...
MVFR CLOUD LAYER TO REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH CLEAR SKIES
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 00Z/7PM
EXPECTING RAPID INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME WITH SNOW MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY, AND WILL SUPPORT A NARROW AXIS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG,
EASTWARD TO LYNCHBURG. AS A RESULT, IFR POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY WITH RAPID DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TOWARD OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THAT COULD IMPACT
THE MORNING PUSH AT ROA. ONCE THE SNOW STARTS, EXPECT IT TO
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST. EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS, LOW CIGS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS/WX THIS WEEKEND. AN ARCTIC FRONT
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
PERIOD OF BITTER COLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-009>014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ018>020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
VAZ022>024-034-035-045>047.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM
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