572
FXUS61 KRNK 121702
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1202 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA, WITH A FEW
INCHES EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF BITTER COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUBZERO WIND CHILLS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1200 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
2) RADAR TRENDS HAVE VALIDATED FORECAST TRENDS FOR LITTLE OR NO
SNOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.
WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION IS WEAKENING AND HAS UNDERPERFORMED MODEL EXPECTATIONS
FROM YESTERDAY. ASIDE FROM A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW WHICH PRODUCED 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WEST OF
THE ROANOKE VALLEY, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION HAS
OCCURRED ELSEWHERE. SINCE ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH, THE ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
IN GENERAL, STILL LOOKING AT A FAIRLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON, WITH
POTENTIAL BREAKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 30S, WITH SOME AROUND 40 IN THE NC
PIEDMONT, BUT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S OVER SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS, IN WV AND THE ALLEGHANYS OF VA.
WE ACTUALLY START GETTING WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
TONIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH
TONIGHT, THINK ANYWHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER, TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WITH WARM AIR OVER ANY SNOWPACK, FOG
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
2) BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD
ARRIVE TO PROVIDE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS.
3) COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN PREVALENT NORTH OF ROUTE 460 ON SATURDAY,
BUT SKIES MAY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WHILE VALUES ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 40S SHOULD OCCUR
ELSEWHERE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER CROSSES THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY, BUT LOWER AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE
REMAINING AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY SUNDAY, THE WIND WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND
MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING ALBERTA CLIPPER. LOWS ON MONDAY
MORNING SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE, WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL WITNESS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS. FOR CONTEXT, THESE READINGS STAND ROUGHLY FIVE DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD LOW TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
PLUMMET BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SHOULD EXPERIENCE WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN AREAS SUCH AS
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY AND MOUNT ROGERS MIGHT TEMPORARILY NOTE
WIND CHILL VALUES PLUNGING DOWN TO -25 DEGREES. THE DEEP FREEZE WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TO BRING DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
WARMING TREND OCCURS.
2) EVENTUALLY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE AS THE PERSISTENT DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS FINALLY DEPARTS OFFSHORE. RIDGING WILL OCCUR ALOFT BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME
ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE SURFACE WIND WILL TURN TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
INCREASE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ADDING UP THESE ATMOSPHERIC CHANGES YIELDS DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD THAW FROM
THE DEEP FREEZE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
THE 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ORGANIZE ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, BUT THE MODELS SHOW NOTABLE DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
TIMING AND TRACK. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
COULD BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE MOISTURE MAY START AS A
BRIEF WINTRY MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO JUST RAIN
BY THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 625 AM EST FRIDAY...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. DAN WILL MAINLY STAY VFR.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO 1/2SM AT BLF/LWB AND PERHAPS
BCB.
TREND IN THE RADAR/MODELS SHOWS SNOW STARTING TO PUSH OUT
BETWEEN 17Z-20Z. THINK THIS IS LIKELY BUT CIGS WILL STILL REMAIN
SUB-VFR EXCEPT DAN, WITH SOME FOG AROUND AS WINDS STAY LIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND 00Z TONIGHT DECREASES AS USUALLY WE
GET SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SNOWCOVER BUT
CLOUD COVER ALSO REMAINS. MODEL TREND SHOWS BETTER FOG CHANCES
AT LWB BUT ALSO KEEP THEM IN THE CLOUDS LONGER, SO WILL HEDGE
TOWARD MVFR VSBYS/CIGS.
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, HAVE CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS/WX THIS WEEKEND. AN ARCTIC FRONT
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
PERIOD OF BITTER COLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD HAVE VFR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NF/PM/WP
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