747
FXUS61 KRNK 122001
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
301 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BLAST OF BITTER COLD IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST OF THE TWO DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A PLUNGE ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
THE POLAR PLUNGE SUNDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE MONTH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ASIDE FOR LINGERING CLOUD COVER, EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY.
LITTLE OR NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. MAY
HAVE SOME REFREEZE OF MELTED SNOW TONIGHT, OTHERWISE THE GENERAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. LINGERING CLOUDS
MAY GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES BUT OVERALL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT... DIPPING INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...35 TO 45 MOUNTAINS...45 TO 52 PIEDMONT.
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
WITH WORDS OF BRUTAL AND BITTER BEING USED TO DESCRIBE THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. UNTIL IT GETS HERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RELATIVELY WARM, SO BEST TO USE THE UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE
SATURDAY TO PREP FOR THE POLAR PLUNGE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
1) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
DRASTICALLY LOWERING TEMPERATURES.
2) LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.
3) BRUTALLY COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OF ARCTIC ORIGIN WILL BE MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS.
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE, THOUGH
MOST SNOW WILL BE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND DRIER AIR TRIES TO SUPPRESS IT. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS
LIGHT, GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH WEST OF I-81, AND ALSO FOR
THE NC MOUNTAINS. THE WESTERN SLOPES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD
SEE 1-2", WHILE WESTERN GREENBRIER AGAIN SEES THE MOST SNOW,
AROUND 3-5". SNOW ESSENTIALLY SKIPS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING OF WINDS, WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OFF TO
OUR EAST IN EASTERN VIRGINIA, WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. SNOW ENDS MIDDAY FOR MOST, WITH WV SEEING UPSLOPE
SNOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, ADVECTING VERY COLD AND DRY AIR IN,
WITH NO FURTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH THE
HIGH LIKELY OCCURRING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WILL BE UPON US. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO INCREASE
TO AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH. THIS COMBINATION WILL
PROVIDE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EVEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WIND CHILL
VALUES FALL TO BELOW ZERO WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS HAVING WIND CHILLS BELOW NEGATIVE 10
DEGREES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
AREA-WIDE. WINDS DO SLIGHTLY REDUCE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL BE CHILLY, IN THE UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S, AND WINDS REMAIN BREEZY, WITH GUSTS OF 15+ MPH POSSIBLE,
KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY/FRIDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE COVERAGE.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT NEXT WEEK, AS A
MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SETS UP. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE CLOCKWISE FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHWARDS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, CAUSING A STEADY RISE IN TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD, UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. DUE TO
THE WARMER AIR, ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO WEST VIRGINIA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
IN. POPS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 30-50%. THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND IT FOR
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY NEXT WEEK, INCREASING EACH DAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S, RISING INTO THE 40S/50S FOR
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE 50S/60S BY THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY,
HIGHS LOWER BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S/30S WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN MAINLY IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG FORMATION. ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING FLURRIES, THE
SNOW HAS ENDED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND 00Z TONIGHT DECREASES AS USUALLY WE
GET SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SNOWCOVER BUT
CLOUD COVER ALSO REMAINS.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS/WX THIS WEEKEND. AN ARCTIC FRONT
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
PERIOD OF BITTER COLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD HAVE VFR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM
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