219
FXUS61 KRNK 130528
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1228 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BLAST OF BITTER COLD IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST OF THE TWO DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A PLUNGE ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
THE POLAR PLUNGE SUNDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE MONTH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 800 PM EST FRIDAY...
LATEST FORECAST UPDATE REFLECTS DECREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO FULL
SATURATION. OVERALL, UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR.
AS OF 445 PM EST FRIDAY...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY FOR SNOWFALL OCCURRING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, A EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY FORECASTED TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
THE EXTREME COLD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED FURTHER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IF NEW DATA SUGGESTS LOWER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR. FOR FURTHER DETAILS, SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ASIDE FOR LINGERING CLOUD COVER, EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY.
LITTLE OR NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. MAY
HAVE SOME REFREEZE OF MELTED SNOW TONIGHT, OTHERWISE THE GENERAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. LINGERING CLOUDS
MAY GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES BUT OVERALL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT... DIPPING INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...35 TO 45 MOUNTAINS...45 TO 52 PIEDMONT.
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
WITH WORDS OF BRUTAL AND BITTER BEING USED TO DESCRIBE THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. UNTIL IT GETS HERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RELATIVELY WARM, SO BEST TO USE THE UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE
SATURDAY TO PREP FOR THE POLAR PLUNGE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
1) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
DRASTICALLY LOWERING TEMPERATURES.
2) LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.
3) BRUTALLY COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OF ARCTIC ORIGIN WILL BE MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS.
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE, THOUGH
MOST SNOW WILL BE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND DRIER AIR TRIES TO SUPPRESS IT. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS
LIGHT, GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH WEST OF I-81, AND ALSO FOR
THE NC MOUNTAINS. THE WESTERN SLOPES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD
SEE 1-2", WHILE WESTERN GREENBRIER AGAIN SEES THE MOST SNOW,
AROUND 3-5". SNOW ESSENTIALLY SKIPS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING OF WINDS, WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OFF TO
OUR EAST IN EASTERN VIRGINIA, WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. SNOW ENDS MIDDAY FOR MOST, WITH WV SEEING UPSLOPE
SNOW THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, ADVECTING VERY COLD AND DRY AIR IN,
WITH NO FURTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH
THE HIGH LIKELY OCCURRING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL BE UPON US. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
25-40 MPH. THIS COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
EVEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES FALL TO BELOW ZERO
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS HAVING WIND CHILLS BELOW NEGATIVE 15 DEGREES. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AREA-WIDE.
WINDS DO SLIGHTLY REDUCE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL BE
CHILLY, IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, AND WINDS REMAIN BREEZY,
WITH GUSTS OF 15+ MPH POSSIBLE, KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY/FRIDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE COVERAGE.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT NEXT WEEK,
AS A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SETS UP. A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER AND NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO
THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE CLOCKWISE
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL ADVECT WARMER
AIR NORTHWARDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, CAUSING A STEADY RISE IN
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. DUE TO THE WARMER AIR, ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
BE RAIN, WITH THE BEST CHANCE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO WEST
VIRGINIA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. POPS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND
30-50%. THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY NEXT WEEK, INCREASING EACH
DAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S, RISING INTO THE
40S/50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE 50S/60S BY THURSDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY, HIGHS LOWER BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S/30S WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN MAINLY IN
THE 30S AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1223 AM EST SATURDAY...
SOME MVFR CEILING/VSBYS AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH ISOLATED
IFR BETWEEN PSK-MKJ WITH FOG/FREEZING FOG.
OVERALL ANTICIPATING MVFR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS PRE-DAWN,
AND VFR EAST, THEN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SOME LOWER CIGS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z/SUN WITH LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB BEFORE 06Z/SUN
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-12KT AFTER 15Z SATURDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, TURNING WEST WITH THE FRONT SAT EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
BLUSTERY WINDS AND SUB-VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AREAWIDE WITH SPEEDS OVER 35KTS AT TIMES
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. VFR RETURNS
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ508.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM/WP
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