079
FXUS61 KRNK 131118
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
618 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BLAST OF BITTER COLD IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TODAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST OF THE TWO DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A PLUNGE ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. SUB-
ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THE
PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE POLAR PLUNGE
SUNDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
MONTH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 615 AM EST SATURDAY...
UPDATE: AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS WE HAVE
UPGRADED THE EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO
A WARNING, AND ALSO PLACED THE REST OF THE AREA ALONG/WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE IN A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SATURDAY IS DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS
2) ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND COLDER
TEMPS.
SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO ALONG THE RIVER WHILE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
MOVE OVERHEAD. EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AFTER DAWN BUT MORE
CLOUDS ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS BY
MIDDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO PICK UP SOME, BUT
OVERALL GUSTS STAY BELOW 25 MPH. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY OF
THE WEEKEND, THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN HOW
LATELY THE NBM HAS BEEN TOO WARM. STILL SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS, TO
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST.
BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS BEHIND THE FRONT, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
PRECIP TIL THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WV INTO THE ALLEGHANYS,
THEN AS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POST-FRONTAL
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN EXPECT MAINLY SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH EVEN A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE REACHING THE PIEDMONT
OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS, EXCEPT 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER RIDGES OF WV/VA/NC ABOVE 4000 FEET.
A BURST OF WIND BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL START THE TEMPERATURE DROP, WITH READINGS
BY DAWN SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN WV TO THE LOWER 30S IN
THE PIEDMONT. WIND CHILLS AROUND THAT TIME WILL RANGE FROM ZERO
TO 10 BELOW AT THE HIGHER RIDGES, TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH TEENS IN ROANOKE AND 20S
EAST.
AT THE MOMENT, WILL KEEP THE COLD WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN
GREENBRIER AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WELL. WILL LIKELY BE
ADDING MORE HEADLINES FOR COLD WEATHER AND POSSIBLY WIND LATER
TODAY, MAINLY FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A PASSING
ALBERTA CLIPPER ON SUNDAY.
2) AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS.
3) DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TAPER TO FLURRIES BY THE
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY, BUT LOWER AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE FROM
BOONE TO LEWISBURG. IN ADDITION, THE WIND INCREASES CONSIDERABLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ALONG THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE BY SUNSET ON SUNDAY WHEN THE
850 MB JET PASSES OVERHEAD. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DIVE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
LOWER TEENS FOR THE PIEDMONT. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CRASH BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER,
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY AND MOUNT ROGERS
MIGHT WITNESS WIND CHILL VALUES PLUMMETING TO -25 DEGREES. THE DEEP
FREEZE WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TO
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THOUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
2) RAIN MAY ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH A SWITCH TO MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR RETURNS FRIDAY.
WITH A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE EXITING OFFSHORE, THE RESULTING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SINCE THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO
GET DELAYED FURTHER IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD JUST BE RAIN DURING THURSDAY. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD SWITCH THE RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR
SHOULD ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 613 AM EST SATURDAY...
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB AT TIMES TIL 14-15Z THIS MORNING,
OTHERWISE VFR TODAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE 10KTS OR
LESS.
AS WE HEAD PAST 00Z/SUNDAY CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER OVER WV
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA. MAINTAINING VFR MOST TAFS WITH
SNOW AND SUB-VFR AT BLF/LWB AFTER 03Z, WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR.
WEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT START TO GUST TO 20KTS+ AFTER 10Z
SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
BLUSTERY WINDS AND SUB-VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AREAWIDE WITH SPEEDS OVER 35KTS AT TIMES
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. VFR RETURNS
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ007-009>020-022>024.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ508.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM/WP
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