471
FXUS61 KRNK 131900
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
200 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BLAST OF BITTER COLD IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
AREA EXPECTED TO PLUNGE SUNDAY READINGS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
AND DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY NIGHT. SUB-
ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THE
PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE THE POLAR PLUNGE SUNDAY. A
PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER. OUTLOOK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
MONTH IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS.
2) PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES.
3) TEMPERATURE PLUNGE SUNDAY SETS STAGE FOR A VERY COLD
NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
HEADLINES: COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR SUBZERO WIND
CHILLS. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTHWEST OF
LEWISBURG, WV FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS MINUS 25 F.
DISCUSSION: LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. PRECEDING
THE FRONT, WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL...ALL POISED TO CHANGE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIP PRODUCTION IS MAINLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW TIL THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV INTO THE ALLEGHANYS, THEN AS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN
EXPECT MAINLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH EVEN A SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE REACHING THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN
INCH OR LESS, EXCEPT 1-2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER RIDGES OF
WV/VA/NC ABOVE 4000 FEET. AMOUNTS ABOVE 4 INCHES LOOK TO REMAIN
PRIMARILY NORTH OF OUR REGION...THE MOUNTAINS EASTERN WV.
A BURST OF WIND BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL START THE TEMPERATURE DROP, WITH READINGS
BY DAWN SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN WV TO THE LOWER 30S IN
THE PIEDMONT. WIND CHILLS AROUND THAT TIME WILL RANGE FROM ZERO
TO 10 BELOW AT THE HIGHER RIDGES, TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH TEENS IN ROANOKE AND 20S
EAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL, SO
EXPECT EVEN LOWER WIND CHILLS BY THE END OF THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AREAS
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AS BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED.
2) QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
3) TEMPERATURES RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT, FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH. WINDS DO REDUCE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, BUT REMAIN AT 5-10 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WINDS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW ZERO WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE
WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO, WITH THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN WV AT 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO. DUE TO THIS,
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 10AM MONDAY FOR
AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PIEDMONT WILL ALSO BE VERY
COLD, WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO, BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH TO MEET
CRITERIA FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL BRING A REDUCTION IN WINDS, AND A GRADUAL
WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US
ON MONDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH WILL
SUPPRESS ANY AND ALL CONVECTION, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY, THOUGH THE
RELOCATION OF THE HIGH AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
INTO THE 30S AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES INCREASE ON TUESDAY, AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ALSO INCREASE, FROM THE TEENS/20S MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE 20S/30S FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM, MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RUN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
STORM SYSTEMS OFF TO OUR NORTH, MAINLY IN CANADA. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY, BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM,
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG, AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY. WITH A WARMER PATTERN IN PLACE, ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE RAIN
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY, WV THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS. DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S/50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EVEN A FEW AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT
COULD REACH 60 ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND 50S FOR THE PIEDMONT. SATURDAY WILL SEE MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S/30S EACH NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST SATURDAY...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY IFR DUE TO INCREASE IN LOW
CLOUDS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO JUST UNDER 1KFT VCNTY OF BLF AND
NORTHWEST OF LWB. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT. PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURE
ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. WEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT
START TO GUST TO 20KTS+ AFTER 10Z SUNDAY. IN GENERAL EXPECTING A
WEST OR SOUTHWEST WIND 5-15KTS UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12-18KTS WITH
GUSTS 25-35KTS EARLY SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
BLUSTERY WINDS AND SUB-VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AREAWIDE WITH SPEEDS UP TO 35KTS AT TIMES
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. VFR RETURNS
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BITTER COLD AIRMASS
WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY, THEN MODERATE MIDWEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ007-009>020-022>024.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ508.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM
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