180
FXUS61 KRNK 071811
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
111 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
QUIET BUT UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH RAIN
ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY. A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A QUIET
PATTERN RETURNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT.
2) TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
COOL OFF TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
DEWPOINTS ALREADY DROPPING AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. WHILE THESE ARE NOT QUITE RECORD
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS ARE RUNNING AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA, CALMING WINDS AND
KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S. TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER
QUIET DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
GUST 10-15 MPH, BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) NEXT SYSTEM TO MAINLY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UPPER SHORTWAVE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO ADVECT
IN AN ELONGATED MOISTURE AXIS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND BRING
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. INCREASED FORCING COMBINES WITH THIS
FEATURE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING CUTOFF LOW THAT DIGS SEWD INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND SLINGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY NOSING INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH TO SW
FETCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION,
HOWEVER THE MAIN IMPACT SHOULD BE THE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN. PWATS
MAY RANGE FROM 1.25-1.5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS, WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OR CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING. THE LATEST QPF ENDS UP WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA RECEIVING 1-1.5 INCHES FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WHICH COULD
BE BENEFICIAL TO SOME AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS RETURNS WITH SOME LINGERING
UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND LOBE
OF VORTICITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LOW MAKES IT WAY
ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COOLING THERMAL
COLUMNS AND SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FORCING
AND ENHANCED WEST TO NW WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GENERATION OF
UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE THE COOLER AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
STAYING CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMS GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ELEVATED, WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ALREADY OCCURRING AND CONTINUING UNTIL SUNSET
TONIGHT. WINDS REDUCE AFTER SUNSET, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA, KEEPING DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY,
THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE MIDDAY. NONETHELESS, VFR WILL
REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY, BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING, PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE
SHOWERS WILL LOWER CIGS TO SUB-VFR BRIEFLY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST, WITH LIKELY SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY. THE FRONT AND RAIN CLEAR OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, THOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,
LEADING TO SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBY THERE. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
SEE QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JCB
NEAR TERM...JCB
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...JCB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page