045
FXUS61 KRNK 080526
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1226 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
HEADS EAST GIVING OUR AREA RAIN. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1210 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) WARMER THE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT A WARMER THAN NORMAL JANUARY DAY WITH HIGHS BEING MORE
LIKE MID-MARCH, WITH 50S FOR MOST AND SOME LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND FAR SW VA.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS, WITH
MORE LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE TONIGHT. MODELS LEANING TOWARD LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES
SOUTH OF FLOYD/ROANOKE TOWARD BOONE, BUT FOR NOW PROBABILITIES
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE LOW, IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE.
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS/CLOUDS EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S
THU NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) NEXT SYSTEM TO MAINLY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UPPER SHORTWAVE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO ADVECT
IN AN ELONGATED MOISTURE AXIS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND BRING
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. INCREASED FORCING COMBINES WITH THIS
FEATURE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING CUTOFF LOW THAT DIGS SEWD INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND SLINGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY NOSING INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH TO SW
FETCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION,
HOWEVER THE MAIN IMPACT SHOULD BE THE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN. PWATS
MAY RANGE FROM 1.25-1.5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS, WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OR CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING. THE LATEST QPF ENDS UP WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA RECEIVING 1-1.5 INCHES FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WHICH COULD
BE BENEFICIAL TO SOME AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS RETURNS WITH SOME LINGERING
UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND LOBE
OF VORTICITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LOW MAKES IT WAY
ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COOLING THERMAL
COLUMNS AND SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FORCING
AND ENHANCED WEST TO NW WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GENERATION OF
UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE THE COOLER AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
STAYING CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMS GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM EST THURSDAY...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND WILL BE LIGHT THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME LOWER CIGS MAY CREEP UP TOWARD ROA/BCB
AFTER 06Z.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD SUB-VFR FRIDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING, PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS FORECAST, WITH
LIKELY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
THE FRONT AND RAIN CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY, THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, LEADING TO SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBY THERE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS AREA-
WIDE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JCB/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...WP
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