022
FXUS61 KRNK 081054
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
554 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
HEADS EAST GIVING OUR AREA RAIN. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1210 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) WARMER THE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT A WARMER THAN NORMAL JANUARY DAY WITH HIGHS BEING MORE
LIKE MID-MARCH, WITH 50S FOR MOST AND SOME LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND FAR SW VA.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS, WITH
MORE LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE TONIGHT. MODELS LEANING TOWARD LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES
SOUTH OF FLOYD/ROANOKE TOWARD BOONE, BUT FOR NOW PROBABILITIES
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE LOW, IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE.
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS/CLOUDS EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S
THU NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST THU JAN 08 2026
2) NEXT SYSTEM TO MAINLY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
3) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NEXT SYSTEM TO MAINLY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION HEADING INTO FRIDAY, AND ALLOW
DEEPENING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. AS THIS
OCCURS, A WARM FRONT (TRYING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION) WILL COMBINE WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO INCREASE
FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE WARM SECTOR
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO MOUNTAIN RAIN (THEN SNOW) SHOWERS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING AMOUNTS GREATER THAN
1.5 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN OUR
WESTERNMOST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES (THINKING ALLEGHANY, ASHE,
WATAUGA, AND POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN WILKES). THIS REGION WILL BE
SUBJECT TO THE GREATEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ARE NOT OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR THIS EVENT. WHILE THERE'S A MARGINAL
(AT LEAST 5%) RISK OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THESE
SPECIFIC AREAS, THIS EVENT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
TO AREAS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ON SATURDAY, OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH PLACES HOVERING AROUND 70
ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT AREAS IN NORTH CAROLINA. A 50-
KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY BRING A DEEP COLUMN OF MOISTURE TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, RESULTING IN A NEARLY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THESE AREAS. AS SUCH, IT'LL PROBABLY BE
DIFFICULT FOR A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP, EVEN WITH THE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL, THOUGH, KINEMATICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM APPEAR
TO BE DECENT. AND THE APPROACH OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO
BE SEEN ACROSS OUR REGION, ENHANCING VERTICAL LIFT. GIVEN PROJECTED
WIND SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER, A FEW ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS IS MOST POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST THU JAN 08 2026
4) COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS RETURNS WITH SOME LINGERING
UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
5) PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD RETURN BY MID-WEEK WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS RETURNS WITH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND LOBE
OF VORTICITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LOW MAKES IT WAY
ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COOLING THERMAL
COLUMNS AND SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FORCING
AND ENHANCED WEST TO NW WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GENERATION OF
UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, THE COOLER AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
STAYING CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMS GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 5...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD RETURN BY MID-WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM.
NO LIE -- THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTIONARY
DETAILS/TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA ON DAY 7. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OR GREAT LAKES AROUND TUESDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA, WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY TRY
TO DEEPEN ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS (BRIEFLY?) BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL FORCING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT, PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT, I'M NOT GOING TO QUIBBLE OVER DETAILS AND
WILL NOT STRAY FROM THE MODEL BLEND.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 552 AM EST THURSDAY...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 06Z, THEN
SUB-VFR CIGS MAINLY MVFR ARRIVE AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY.
COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD 12Z
FRIDAY AS WELL.. WIND WILL BE LIGHT THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUB-VFR FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING, PARTICULARLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS FORECAST, WITH LIKELY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.
THE FRONT AND RAIN CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY, THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, LEADING TO SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBY THERE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS AREA-
WIDE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JCB/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...AB/DB
AVIATION...WP
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