009
FXUS61 KRNK 082316
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
616 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT HEADS EAST
GIVING OUR AREA RAIN. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) RAIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY.
WHILE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD ROUND OUT TODAY WITH MILD WEATHER,
THE DRY PERIOD SHOULD COME TO AN END FRIDAY AS AN ELONGATED
MOISTURE AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOULD ENSUE
BEGINNING MID MORNING IN THE WESTERN CWA AND SPREADING AREA-WIDE
BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 1.25 INCHES SHOULD BE IN PLACE
WHICH IS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMO LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR SO RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITY AT TIMES AND
FAIRLY EFFICIENT/HYDROMETEOR LOADED. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
LARGELY STABLE SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONG CONVECTION WITH
THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MAINLY SATURDAY. WHILE RAINY, AT LEAST THE
TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABNORMALLY WARM FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S - EVEN MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
2) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DROP BACK TO NORMAL BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR SUNDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY AND CAUSE MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA TO KENTUCKY THEN A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM KENTUCKY TO TO THE DELMARVA AREA. A DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT LIFT AND CONVECTION, WHICH WILL MOVE
TOWARDS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL CAUSE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HEAVIER
RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST WETTING RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA IN SOME TIME, WHICH IS MUCH NEEDED WITH THE
INCREASING DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY, THOUGH IT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED LATE IN THE DAY
WHILE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, THOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE HEAVY CLOUDS AND RAIN. NONETHELESS, ENOUGH
WIND ENERGY AND SHEAR IS PRESENT THAT THE SPC HAS OUR AREA SOUTH OF
I-64 IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST AN
INCH NEARLY AREA-WIDE, WITH 1-2" ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD BE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL RECEIVED FROM A SYSTEM IN AROUND 2 MONTHS FOR OUR AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-35+ MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SNOW TOTALS WOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN
GREENBRIER, WHERE UP TO AN INCH COULD ACCUMULATE. SNOW SHOWERS END
BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S/60S, AND LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 50S. BEHIND THE FRONT,
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING FALL INTO THE 30S/40S, WITH TEMPERATURES
MAINTAINING THROUGH THE DAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 20S,
WITH TEENS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
ELEVATED WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING TO BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) QUIET WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
2) MODELS HINTING AT LATE WEEK SYSTEMS BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER
BACK TO THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGH WEAKENS. THERE
IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST PUSHES EAST BUT FIZZLES OUT OVER OUR AREA.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS, WHILE THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM CRANKS UP AND BEGINS TO
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE UP
THE EAST COAST. THESE WOULD BE MILLER A TYPE OF SYSTEMS, WHICH ARE
IDEAL FOR LARGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS FOR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
MODELS DO NOT HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY,
THE TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS LATE NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, THERE IS EQUAL
CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY, OR THAT WINTER
WEATHER COULD OCCUR. THE SETUP IS IN PLACE, BUT THE INGREDIENTS MUST
COME TOGETHER PROPERLY. REGARDLESS, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THOUGH ANY SNOW WOULD NOT HAVE A LARGE IMPACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S FOR
MONDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S/50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20S/30S EACH MORNING.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 600 PM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS JUST PRIOR
TO SUNRISE AT NEARLY ALL TERMINALS. THESE MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS AS NEAR 500FT CIGS BLANKET THE
REGION, AND ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
ALONG WITH THESE RESTRICTIONS, SOME LLWS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS BLF, LWB, AND BCB DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE 16-18 UTC TIMEFRAME AT THESE
TERMINALS. BY THE 18 UTC TIMEFRAME, MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LOOK TO OVERTAKE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS FROM THE WEST, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
EVENTUALLY REACHING PIEDMONT TERMINALS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS GENERALLY LOOK TO REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND THE 14-16 UTC
TIMEFRAME, THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS
OF 15-18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH
LIKELY SUB- VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
THE FRONT AND RAIN CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY, THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, LEADING TO SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBY THERE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS AREA-
WIDE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JCB/WP
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...AB/EB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page