653
FXUS61 KRNK 090736
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
236 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, WILL IMPACT THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC BEGINNING THIS
MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY, WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THAT
WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY, WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
STARTING THE DAY OFF WITH MILD TEMPERATURES, MOST OF WHICH ARE
IN THE 40S, AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH DAWN.
FOR TODAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA BEGINNING AROUND NOON, AND SPREAD GRADUALLY
EASTWARD TO THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING, IT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT,
MAINTAINING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
THROUGH DAWN. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH DAWN SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.5" FOR MOST, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CAN'T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR A LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOUR,
BUT BELIEVE THE PROBABILITY FOR EITHER IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY COULD BRING THE
THREAT OF URBAN, SMALL STREAM, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TO
PARTS OF THE AREA.
2. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
3. WINDY, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY.
4. VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DROP BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...A 15 TO 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE TWO DAYS.
A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT ON ITS HEELS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
SUNDAY WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND PERHAPS THUNDER. PROBABILITIES FOR QPF
AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN 0.60 INCHES OF RAIN RANGE FROM 65% IN
DANVILLE TO ABOUT 90% ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 8 TO 9KFT. THIS, ALONG WITH
PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES AT TIMES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED
AND TRAINING CONVECTION ELEMENTS, POINT TOWARDS LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLY LEADING TO URBAN, SMALL
STREAM, AND PERHAPS ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE MORE OR LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE GROUND IS VERY
DRY AND WILL SOAK UP MOST OF IT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AND WILL BRING AN END TO MOST PRECIPITATION. THAT
SAID, AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN EARLY SUNDAY, WE WILL SEE SOME
MIXING OR CHAGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. ANTECEDENT
WARMTH WILL KEEP ANYTHING FROM STICKING TO THE ROADS, BUT IT
COULD STILL BE SLICK.
VERY STRONG SW AND THEN WESTERLY WINDS ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY WITH DEEP MIXING BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND WE COULD SEE GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER WE COULD MIX SOME HIGHER GUSTS DOWN
SATURDAY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OR STRONGER CONVECTION.
MODERATE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
30S FOR HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY, WITH THE PIEDMONT IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
MONDAY, WITH THE MOUNTAINS MODERATING A BIT. WHILE THIS WILL
SEEM VERY CHILLY COMPARED TO OUR RECENT 60S, WE WILL ACTUALLY BE
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL. LOWS DROP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE TEENS
AND 20A AREAWIDE.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS MODERATE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN MID-WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURE
DECREASE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN REAPPEARS WITH A MESSY SURFACE
PATTERN AND A DEEPENING MEAN TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST. WE WILL
SEE A COUPLE DIFFERENT REINFORCING COLD AIR MASSES, AND THIS
COULD CHANGE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW OR FREEZING
RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
THURSDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A COASTAL LOW DEEPENING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH COULD INTERFERE WITH OUR
MOISTURE AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WE GET. HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM IS LOW DUE TO ILL-DEFINED SYSTEMS.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST FRIDAY...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOWERING CEILINGS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS MORNING AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CARRY MOISTURE ACROSS
THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE SURFACE WINDS FOR MOST ARE LESS
THAN 10KTS, SPEEDS WITHIN 2KFT OF THE SURFACE ARE INCREASING TO
THE 35KT TO 40KT RANGE, INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL OF WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS.
FOR TODAY, CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER, WITH LOW END
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED BY AROUND 15Z. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY DURING THE 15Z TO
17Z TIMEFRAME, AND GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MID-ATANTIC
THROUGH THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
INTO THE 3SM TO 5SM RANGE, BUT BELIEVE THESE REDUCTIONS WILL BE
INTERMITTENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15KT TO 20KT
RANGE BY LATE MORNING, WITH THESE GUSTS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
SHOWERS, LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, AND POCKETS OF RAIN AND FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH LOW MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, THOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,
LEADING TO SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THERE. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...EB/NF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page