350
FXUS61 KRNK 091949
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
249 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EVEN THOUGH THE OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM RAIN EVENT
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY HAVEN'T SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED (0.5-1
IN.), THE RISK OF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
LOWER. THERE'S INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN, SOME HEAVY, WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.
2) GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER AIRMASS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN PARTS OF THE NORTH.
3) CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PERIODS OF RAIN, SOME HEAVY, WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AN INITIAL AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN VICINITY OF A WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTH/WEST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RAIN TO SPREAD NORTH
AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS UNDER A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN COULD BE SEEN IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, FARTHER NORTH,
THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE MORE HIT-OR-MISS THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE AIRMASS IS STILL SLIGHTLY DRIER.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF OUR AREA WILL SETTLE INTO THE WARM SECTOR LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR REGION.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ("NORMAL" FOR EARLY JANUARY IS GENERALLY BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND HALF INCH.) UNDER AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN A HALF AND
1 INCH, WITH THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING AN INCH OR MORE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA. REGARDLESS OF THE AMOUNT, THIS SHOULD BE AN
"EFFICIENT" RAIN EVENT, GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE COLUMN. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL, NO DOUBT. BUT IN GENERAL, THOUGH,
THE GROUND REMAINS VERY DRY AND SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER AIRMASS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN PARTS OF THE NORTH.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW AXIS SHOULD SWING ACROSS DURING THE
DAY ALONG WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED GUSTY WEST TO NW WINDS AND POSSIBLE GUST MAGNITUDES OF 40
MPH OR MORE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ADVISORY MAY
BE WARRANTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD IN FUTURE UPDATES.
THERMAL PROFILES ALSO INDICATE SOME SATURATION BELOW 700 MB IN THE
COLDER COLUMN SO THE ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE COULD ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA AS
WELL. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NEAR AN INCH OR LESS
ESPECIALLY FOR THE TYPICAL WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE WITH A STRONGER DEEPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND CUTTING OFF FROM THE
OTHER LONGWAVE ENERGY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS
MAY GET DOWN TO 530 DAM OR LOWER ALONG WITH A DECENT PERIOD OF
THE CWA IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH
CENTER. PROGGED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE TOO WARM IN THE
LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN CHANCES, BUT WILL BE
COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS POSSIBLE AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF
THERE IS SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST FRI JAN 09 2026
RESTRICTED FLIGHT CATEGORIES, ESPECIALLY DUE TO LOW CIGS, WILL
IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. IFR CIG REDUCTIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS -RA/BR AFFECTS THE REGION, WITH A FEW
AIRPORTS LIKELY DROPPING INTO LIFR TERRITORY. TERMINALS N OF THE
NC/VA BORDER WILL LIKELY GET A BREAK IN RA THIS EVENING DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION CLOSER TO 10/0500 UTC AND CONTINUE OFF-AND-ON THROUGH
MOST OF SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
10/2400 UTC.
OUTLOOK SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AFTER FROPA DUE TO LOW CIGS AND UPSLOPE -SHSN. WIND GUSTS
AOA 20KTS. POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRINGS THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AB/DB
AVIATION...DB
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