209
FXUS61 KRNK 100035
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
249 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 6:30 PM EST
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE ABOUT
1-1.5" OF RAIN IN TOTAL WHILE SOME ELEVATED AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA MAY SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN, SOME HEAVY, WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.
2) GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER AIRMASS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN PARTS OF THE NORTH.
3) CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PERIODS OF RAIN, SOME HEAVY, WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AN INITIAL AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN VICINITY OF A WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTH/WEST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RAIN TO SPREAD NORTH
AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS UNDER A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN COULD BE SEEN IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, FARTHER NORTH,
THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE MORE HIT-OR-MISS THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE AIRMASS IS STILL SLIGHTLY DRIER.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF OUR AREA WILL SETTLE INTO THE WARM SECTOR LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR REGION.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ("NORMAL" FOR EARLY JANUARY IS GENERALLY BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND HALF INCH.) UNDER AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN A HALF AND
1 INCH, WITH THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING AN INCH OR MORE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA. REGARDLESS OF THE AMOUNT, THIS SHOULD BE AN
"EFFICIENT" RAIN EVENT, GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE COLUMN. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL, NO DOUBT. BUT IN GENERAL, THOUGH,
THE GROUND REMAINS VERY DRY AND SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER AIRMASS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN PARTS OF THE NORTH.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW AXIS SHOULD SWING ACROSS DURING THE
DAY ALONG WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED GUSTY WEST TO NW WINDS AND POSSIBLE GUST MAGNITUDES OF 40
MPH OR MORE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ADVISORY MAY
BE WARRANTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD IN FUTURE UPDATES.
THERMAL PROFILES ALSO INDICATE SOME SATURATION BELOW 700 MB IN THE
COLDER COLUMN SO THE ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE COULD ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA AS
WELL. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NEAR AN INCH OR LESS
ESPECIALLY FOR THE TYPICAL WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE WITH A STRONGER DEEPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND CUTTING OFF FROM THE
OTHER LONGWAVE ENERGY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS
MAY GET DOWN TO 530 DAM OR LOWER ALONG WITH A DECENT PERIOD OF
THE CWA IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH
CENTER. PROGGED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE TOO WARM IN THE
LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN CHANCES, BUT WILL BE
COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS POSSIBLE AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF
THERE IS SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST FRI JAN 09 2026
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE AS RAINFALL CONTINUES TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW VFR DUE TO LOW
VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN AND MIST AND VERY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. RAIN IS
LIKELY FOR ALL TERMINALS THOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. KBCB, KROA, AND
KLWB ARE LIKELY TO HAVE IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIMITED VISIBILITY AND
LOW CEILINGS. KLYH AND KDAN MAY HAVE CEILINGS BELOW 500FT AND SO BE
LIFR. KBLF, INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT IS
MVFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION, A NARROW LOW LEVEL JET IS
SET TO PASS THROUGH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY. WHILE THESE
WINDS DON'T LOOK TO REACH THE SURFACE, THEY ARE LIKELY TO BRING SOME
WIND SHEAR FOR AT LEAST KDAN.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS AVERAGE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. COLD AIR MAY ARRIVE WITH
THE PRECIPITATION TO PROVIDE SOME SNOW FOR KBCB AND KLWB. WINDS PICK
UP CONSIDERABLY AND GUST TO 30-40 KTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGHER PRESSURE TAKES OVER WHICH WILL QUIET THINGS DOWN UNTIL
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AB/DB
AVIATION...CDG
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