926
FXUS61 KRNK 100735
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
235 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, WILL IMPACT THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC BEGINNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY, WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THAT WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID-
JANUARY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO LATE TUESDAY, WHEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 145 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY COULD BRING THE THREAT OF
URBAN, SMALL STREAM, AND FLASH FLOODING TO ISOLATED PARTS OF
THE AREA.
2) GUSTY WEST TO NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN.
TODAY, NEAR CONTINUOUS PVA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FROM SW
TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE LOOPS AND DERIVED MOTION
WINDS SHOW A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING OFF THE
GULF COAST STATES. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL REINFORCING COLD AIR EVEN
BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN HAS BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW, AND EXPECT ALL
AREAS TO SEE PERIODS OF RAIN BY 5 AM. CAMS INDICATE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN STARTS AROUND 7 AM AND ENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN WILL THEN BE MORE LIKELY, WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WILKESBORO, NC, TO CHARLOTTE
COURTHOUSE, VA, OR BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PIEDMONT.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 INCHES TO AROUND 2 INCHES ON
THE RIDGES WHERE CROSS-BARRIER MOISTURE FLOW WILL INTERACT
WITH THE BLUE RIDGE. WHILE WE ARE PLENTY PARCHED WITH THE LACK
OF RAINFALL, ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OR REPEATED TRAINING OF
CELLS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF URBAN, SMALL STREAM, AND
PERHAPS FLASH FLOODING, ALTHOUGH MOST WILL NOT HAVE AN ISSUE
AND IT WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY REMAIN WARM AND WILL HEAT UP A FEW DEGREES LATER
TODAY. CAA ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND WE WILL SEE THE MOUNTAINS DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S SUNDAY MORNING, WITH 40S FOR THE PIEDMONT WHERE
THE COLD AIR REACHES LATER. WNW WINDS BECOME GUSTY TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, REACHING 25 TO PERHAPS
35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
FORECASTED FOR SUNDAY.
2. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A MODEST WARMING TREND.
LOOKING TO SUNDAY MORNING, WILL START THE DAY WITH A FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
FROM THE MIDWEST REGION. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS DURING
MUCH OF THE DAY RANGING FROM 30 MPH TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND OTHER PROMINENT RIDGE LINES. GUSTS TO 35 MPH
ARE FORECASTED FOR THE PIEDMONT. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
THESE WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 7 PM, WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE EAST.
NEARLY ALL WEATHER DATA FOR THIS SYSTEM IS POINTING TO THE NEED
FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY, BUT WILL LET THE DAYTIME
FORECASTERS HAVE A LOOK AT ANOTHER ROUND OF DATA LATER TODAY FOR
ANY INCREASE IN SPEEDS.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AS
THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WITH IT A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN DURING LATE MORNING, IMPACTING
THE RIDGES FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH BANDS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END BY AROUND SUNSET, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CARRY THE
SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 29 DURING EARLY AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS, AND ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH UP TO
3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS UNDER 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND FROM 3-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY TO 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS.
THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO
WARM UP ENOUGH DURING THE MORNING THAT WE'LL START THE EVENT
WITH LIGHT RAIN, BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
HEADING INTO THE EVENING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECASTED
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, BUT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE RIDGES FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH ONLY MODEST ACCUMULATIONS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL
TAKE US THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST SATURDAY...
LIFR AND IFR WILL PLAGUE MOST OF THE REGION TODAY AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN CROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATELY HEAVY, AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES TO
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MOST OF THE PERIOD. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR DAN DURING THE DAY. BLF MAY SEE SOME
LLWS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AT THE SURFACE.
AROUND 19-20Z CEILINGS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT MOVES AWAY,
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
EXPECT STRATUS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT BEFORE WNW WINDS KICK IN AND
BEGIN TO CLEAR THINGS OUT DOWNSTREAM OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BLF,
LWB, AND POSSIBLY BCB AND ROA WILL SEE CONTINUED CLOUDINESS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIME THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, POSSIBLY
IMPACTING BLF AND LWB. SNOW FLURRIES MAY REACH WELL DOWNSTREAM
HOWEVER AND AFFECT EVERYONE EXCEPT DAN AND LYH. BLF, LWB, AND
POSSIBLY BCB AND ROA WILL SEE CONTINUED CLOUDINESS IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIME THROUGH SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE GUSTY SSW WINDS TODAY VEER TONIGHT TO THE WEST AND
FINALLY NW BY SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 KTS OR SO TODAY,
BUT WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 KTS ON THE HIGHER RIDGES.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS AVERAGE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNTIL LATE TUESDAY, WHEN ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS,
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRINGING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF/SH
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...SH
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