100
FXUS61 KRNK 101955
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
255 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND WINDS WILL PICK UP
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND COLDER AIR ENTERS THE REGION WHICH
WILL BRING US BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHER PRESSURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WIND ADVISORIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
2) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN WESTERN GREENBRIER DUE TO 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
RAIN CHANCES START TO DWINDLE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, DRIER AND COLDER AIR RUSH
THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT AND SNAP US BACK TOWARDS AVERAGE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND PICK UP OVERNIGHT BUT APPROACH THEIR PEAK AROUND
SUNRISE AND GUST UP TO 50 MPH FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE UNDER THIS ADVISORY. ANOTHER WAVE OF
ENERGY WILL ARRIVE AFTER THE COLD ARRIVES TO BRING A CHANCE OF
UPSLOPE SNOW TOWARDS THE WEST. WESTERN GREENBRIER IS LIKELY TO
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW (2-4") AND HAS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS A
RESULT. SOME OF THIS SNOW MAY REACH OTHER PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BUT ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THIS WILL LIKELY BE FAR LESS THAN WESTERN GREENBRIER. OTHERWISE,
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND IN THE 40S (AND MAYBE UP TO 50) EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WINDS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT
2. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS AND A MODEST WARMING TREND.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT, CLEARING THE WAY FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO EDGE INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS CLEARING WILL
LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FIRMLY OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
LINGER INTO TUESDAY, PROVIDING A STABLE START TO THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID-
JANUARY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
TRACKS OVER THE AREA, SHIFTING THE AIRMASS AND HELPING TO SEND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAIN WEDNESDAY, THEN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
3. RAIN POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
IT WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY PULLING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TRANSITION WILL BE
A BLUSTERY ONE, WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
FORECAST TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND MAY LINGER THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD ON WEDNESDAY, RUNNING
ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL, BEFORE PLUMMETING TO ROUGHLY 10F BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STEADY RECOVERY WILL
FOLLOW, WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST SATURDAY...
UNSURPRISINGLY, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
SATURDAY (TODAY) AND PARTLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
HIGH FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND WILL LIKELY NOT STOP UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE EXTREMELY LOW LEVEL CEILINGS OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
ENOUGH TO BRING TERMINALS ALL THE WAY TO LIFR STATUS. KBLF WILL
LIKELY STAY SUB-VFR THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE
OTHER TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BACK TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. A SMALL EXCEPTION IS TO KLWB WHICH MAY BE BROUGHT BACK DOWN
TO MVFR DUE TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR FROM A
LOW LEVEL JET MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT IS EXPECTED TO
FADE OUT BY TONIGHT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE, SURFACE WINDS WILL
PICK UP CONSIDERABLY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AND
IT WILL BE GUSTY (UP TO 45 KTS) ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS AVERAGE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR SO VFR SKIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. IT IS UNCLEAR,
HOWEVER, WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...CG
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