097
FXUS61 KRNK 110103
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
803 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND WINDS WILL PICK UP
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND COLDER AIR ENTERS THE REGION WHICH
WILL BRING US BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHER PRESSURE
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 745 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WIND ADVISORIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
2) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN WESTERN GREENBRIER DUE TO 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
MEANINGFUL RAIN HAS LARGELY ENDED THROUGHOUT THE AREA. A
SMATTERING OF WEAK RETURNS ARE VISIBLE ON RADAR, SO A SURPRISE
SHOWER MAY HIT YOU IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE TONIGHT. COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WANE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON, BEFORE UPSLOPE SNOW
BEGINS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. SOME WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
PICK UP IN THE NC HIGH COUNTRY, WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH ALREADY
BEING REPORTED. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED, EXCEPT TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS A FEW DEGREES AS
THOSE AREAS WERE COOLING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES START TO DWINDLE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, DRIER AND COLDER
AIR RUSH THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT AND SNAP US BACK TOWARDS
AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.
WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PICK UP
OVERNIGHT BUT APPROACH THEIR PEAK AROUND SUNRISE AND GUST UP TO
50 MPH FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ARE UNDER THIS ADVISORY. ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY WILL
ARRIVE AFTER THE COLD ARRIVES TO BRING A CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SNOW
TOWARDS THE WEST. WESTERN GREENBRIER IS LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE
MOST SNOW (2-4") AND HAS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS A RESULT.
SOME OF THIS SNOW MAY REACH OTHER PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND
COULD POTENTIALLY REACH THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BUT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THIS WILL LIKELY BE FAR LESS THAN WESTERN GREENBRIER.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE 40S (AND MAYBE UP TO 50) EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WINDS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT
2. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS AND A MODEST WARMING TREND.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT, CLEARING THE WAY FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO EDGE INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS CLEARING WILL
LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FIRMLY OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
LINGER INTO TUESDAY, PROVIDING A STABLE START TO THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID-
JANUARY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
TRACKS OVER THE AREA, SHIFTING THE AIRMASS AND HELPING TO SEND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAIN WEDNESDAY, THEN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
3. RAIN POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
IT WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY PULLING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TRANSITION WILL BE
A BLUSTERY ONE, WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
FORECAST TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND MAY LINGER THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD ON WEDNESDAY, RUNNING
ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL, BEFORE PLUMMETING TO ROUGHLY 10F BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STEADY RECOVERY WILL
FOLLOW, WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST SATURDAY...
MOST SITES ARE REPORTING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AS A MIX OF
RAIN, LOW CLOUDS AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS, EVEN FOG, ARE MAKING
FOR POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EVEN WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT
TO BRING DRIER AIR, IT IS EXPECTED THAT CLOUD CIGS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW 3KFT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. SURFACE GUSTS
OF UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE BLUSTERY FURTHER EAST. THESE WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY, AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
SHEAR DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CIGS WILL START TO LIFT SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THE WORST WINDS
WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
WANE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT OUR UPSLOPE AREAS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN WV MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
SHOWERS TONIGHT, TURNING OVER TO SNOW ON SUNDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY FURTHER NORTH, BUT WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE 2-4" OF ACCUMULATION SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS ABOVE AVERAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR SO VFR SKIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. IT IS UNCLEAR,
HOWEVER, WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...CG/VFJ
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...CG/VFJ
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