629
FXUS61 KRNK 110741
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
241 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC TODAY, RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE
ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING GENERALLY DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT,
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DURING NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 745 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS LOCALLY UP TO 50 MPH.
2) A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY AS 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECASTED TODAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING, WITH COOLER DRIER AIR BUILDING
THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAINS ON WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THAT ARE
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN SPEED.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
THAT DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 35
MPH TO OCCASIONALLY 50 MPH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OTHER TALLER RIDGES.
FURTHER EAST, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT GUSTS WILL, AT TIMES,
REACH 35 MPH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIMING
FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 10 PM.
DESPITE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT, THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S AND CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY DAWN ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT WILL
RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
BETWEEN 8 AM AND 11 AM, AND WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE RIDGES
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH
CAROLINA WITH BANDS OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC, MUCH OF THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END BY AROUND SUNSET, BUT FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CARRY THE
SNOW SHOWERS EAST, RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLAKES FLYING
TO THE HIGHWAY 29, AND POSSIBLY BEYOND, DURING EARLY AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS, AND ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH UP TO
2 TO 4 INCHES IS FORECASTED FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY,
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
2. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND, BROAD TROUGHING
WILL MOVE IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DURING THIS TIME,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BETWEEN WIND AND
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS HAVE A 80 TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING 15F DEGREES
OR LESS, HELPED ALONG BY PWATS BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO REBOUND LATE MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY THE 50S FOR THE PIEDMONT.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL HAVE TURNED TO THE SSW,
ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE SOUTH WILL KEEP MUCH
MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING BEFORE THE SYSTEM. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH A LOWER CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE
PIEDMONT. THIS WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT THE HIGHER PEAKS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS MODERATE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN ELSEWHERE.
2. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. WIND
CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
AREAWIDE.
3. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES REAPPEAR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH VERY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY, USHERING IN
ANOTHER BLAST OF FRIGID AIR. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND RAIN GOING FOR THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION TYPES INDICATE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW, MUCH HIGHER THAN ANY OTHER
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND
FRIGID THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY, WITH UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE PIEDMONT.
GUSTY WINDS ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT, AND LINGERING GUSTS FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S
MEAN WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5 TO 10F IN THE
MOUNTAINS, AND AROUND 15F IN THE PIEDMONT. FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND BUT STAY COOL, BEFORE
DROPPING OFF AGAIN SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ENSEMBLE METEOGRAMS FAVOR SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM IS MODERATE, BUT LOW ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
MORNING, BRINGING A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND IMPROVING
CEILINGS AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. CEILINGS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ARE CURRENTLY VFR, BUT REMAIN MVFR/IFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC TODAY,
BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL GUST
30KT TO OCCASIONALLY 45KT. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE STRONGEST
GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 11/15Z AND 12/03Z. THE DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO BRING SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT BLF AND LWB,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY MAY ADVANCE AS FAR EAST AS LYH DURING EARLY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH BY
SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 12/00Z BUT REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AS
CEILINGS SCATTER.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS ABOVE AVERAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS UNDER 10KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS. A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES THAT FOLLOW INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...NF/VFJ
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