667
FXUS61 KRNK 111820
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
120 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE FADING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT FADE LATER TONIGHT.
2) DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT IS
CROSSING OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME. NOTABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. ENERGY AND LIFT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS PRODUCING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ONE EARLIER BAND BECAME A SNOW SQUALL ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 77
CORRIDOR, AND THE BLUEFIELD AIRPORT REPORTED A GUST UP TO 37
MPH WITH UNDER 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOW.
WINDS WILL PEAK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MIXING
ALLOWS THE GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE, MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
FROM BOONE TO LEWISBURG, BUT SOME FLURRIES COULD SPREAD TOWARDS
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HEADS OFFSHORE. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS LATER
TONIGHT TO PROVIDE DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY, BUT IT WILL BE
FRIGID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING TOWARDS THE UPPER TEENS TO
THE UPPER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY REBOUND INTO
THE 30S AND 40S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. BENIGN AND WARMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK.
2. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MID-JANUARY CHILL WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP AS A DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. BY
TUESDAY MORNING, THE BITING FROST OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK WILL FEEL
LIKE A DISTANT MEMORY, REPLACED BY A GENTLE, STEADY BREEZE THAT
CARRIED THE SCENT OF THAWING EARTH.
THE WARMING TREND HIT ITS STRIDE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH HIGH, THIN CLOUDS, THE MERCURY WILL
CLIMB NEARLY 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. RESIDENTS WILL TRADE
HEAVY PARKAS FOR LIGHT JACKETS AS TEMPERATURES SETTLED INTO A
COMFORTABLE RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID-50S. FOR A FEW
HOURS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL FEEL MORE LIKE A PREVIEW OF EARLY
SPRING THAN THE HEART OF WINTER.
HOWEVER, THE REPRIEVE IS DESTINED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE SKY OVER THE WESTERN HORIZON WILL
BEGIN TO BRUISE WITH HEAVY, GRAY CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
MAKING ITS DESCENT, PUSHING A LINE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. AS
THE SUN DIPS LOW, THE FIRST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DOT
THE PEAKS OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, SIGNALING THE END OF THE
BRIEF WARM SPELL AND THE RETURN OF A MORE VOLATILE WINTER
PATTERN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 110 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ELSEWHERE INTO THURSDAY.
2. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND WINTER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY.
A POWERFUL CLOSED LOW IS SET TO TRANSITION THROUGH THE REGION
MID-WEEK, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM RAIN TO POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFINE
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL DICTATE EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS SET UP.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF WEDNESDAY EVENING'S COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. ON THURSDAY, THE
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA, KEEPING DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE CORE OF THE STORM’S
"DEFORMATION ZONE"—THE AREA OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL—REMAINS
SENSITIVE TO THE LOW'S EXACT PATH.
A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR, IMPACTING TRAVEL FROM LEWISBURG, WV,
TO LEXINGTON, VA. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW DIPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
NORTH CAROLINA, THE SNOW SHIELD WOULD BROADEN, LIKELY BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460 AND LIGHT COATINGS TO CITIES LIKE ROANOKE AND
LYNCHBURG.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING,
LEAVING BEHIND A FRIGID NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
FRIDAY WILL OFFER A QUIET REPRIEVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S WEST
AND 40S EAST BEFORE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TRIGGERS A BRIEF WARM-
UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS TIMED FOR SUNDAY, ENSURING
THE COLD REMAINS LOCKED IN AS WE START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EST SUNDAY...
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BLF AND LWB
DURING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD STAY STRONG WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ANTICIPATED AT
ALL TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHILE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST FOR LYH AND DAN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT ROA TO
INCLUDE ANY MVFR CEILINGS, BUT THESE LOWER STRATUS LAYERS WILL
NOT BE FAR TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE, IT WILL TAKE UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING FOR BLF, LWB, AND BCB TO SEE THESE LOWER STRATUS
LAYERS SCATTER AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
ARRIVE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS DURING MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS, GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS, AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY FADE DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PW
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