053
FXUS61 KRNK 121859
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
159 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QUIET WEATHER UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW, BUT THE SYSTEM
IS LOOKING DRIER, WHICH HAS LOWERED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AND
CONFINED ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK ALSO HAVE TRENDED COLDER, WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND GUSTY WINDS CAUSING WIND CHILLS TO BE AROUND ZERO WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS FOR SEVERAL MORNINGS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALSO
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR WINTER WEATHER CHANCES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
2) COLDER CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
3) ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LIGHT SNOW WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.
SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP, LONGWAVE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START INITIALLY AS RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, UNTIL THE FIRST FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET, WITH SNOW
EXPECTED ANYWHERE ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT A QUICK BURST OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES EAST, SNOW
CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT WILL BE DUE TO UPSLOPE NORTHWEST
FLOW LASTING FOR MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS HAVE COME
DOWN SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, UP TO AROUND AN INCH FOR THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE 1-3", WITH WESTERN
GREENBRIER, AS USUAL, SEEING THE MOST SNOW, AROUND 2-4". SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLDER CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING ON THURSDAY OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS, THE OVERALL PATTERN TILTS TOWARDS A COLDER THAN NORMAL
PERIOD FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BY THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AMIDST A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD SUPPLY PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO
40 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DIVING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME
READINGS MAY EVEN DIP BELOW ZERO FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WEST OF
A LINE FROM BOONE TO LEWISBURG. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD APPROACH THE SAME RANGES BY MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES OF
SNOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROADER TROUGH SHOULD DIVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND HEAD EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE COLD AIR AND MOISTURE. CHANCES OF
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING FRIDAY EVENING AND
PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. SOME MOISTURE COULD LEAK EASTWARD INTO THE
PIEDMONT AND PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MIX BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS DISAGREE
CONSIDERABLY ON HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIG DURING
THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. BY
SUNDAY, THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE AS A COLD FRONT EXITS EASTWARD.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...
SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED, THOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED, GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH AT TIMES ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. THE QUIET WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR TUESDAY, AS SIMILAR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SOME ELEVATED WIND GUSTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH NO RAIN CHANCES AREA-
WIDE AND SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MID-MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOME LLWS
IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER VSBY AND CIGS. THE SNOW CONTINUES FOR
THURSDAY, BUT LIKELY WILL ONLY AFFECT BLF/LWB, WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. SNOW WINDS DOWN LATE THURSDAY, WITH
VFR RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AGAIN BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO MOST OF THE AREA, WHICH WOULD LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
SUB-VFR. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH GUSTY WINDS CAUSING WIND CHILLS TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
BELOW ZERO FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR SEVERAL
MORNINGS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCB/PW
AVIATION...JCB
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