954
FXUS61 KRNK 130010
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
710 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE PIEDMONT AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES MILDER.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING
SNOW, BUT THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING DRIER, WHICH HAS LOWERED SNOW
TOTALS SLIGHTLY AND CONFINED ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK ALSO HAVE TRENDED COLDER,
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND GUSTY WINDS CAUSING WIND CHILLS TO
BE AROUND ZERO WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR SEVERAL MORNINGS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALSO REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR WINTER WEATHER
CHANCES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
2) COLDER CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
3) ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LIGHT SNOW WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.
SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP, LONGWAVE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START INITIALLY AS RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, UNTIL THE FIRST FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET, WITH SNOW
EXPECTED ANYWHERE ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT A QUICK BURST OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES EAST, SNOW
CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT WILL BE DUE TO UPSLOPE NORTHWEST
FLOW LASTING FOR MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS HAVE COME
DOWN SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, UP TO AROUND AN INCH FOR
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE 1-3", WITH
WESTERN GREENBRIER, AS USUAL, SEEING THE MOST SNOW, AROUND 2-4".
SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLDER CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING ON THURSDAY OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS, THE OVERALL PATTERN TILTS TOWARDS A COLDER THAN NORMAL
PERIOD FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BY THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AMIDST A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD SUPPLY PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO
40 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DIVING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME
READINGS MAY EVEN DIP BELOW ZERO FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WEST OF
A LINE FROM BOONE TO LEWISBURG. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD APPROACH THE SAME RANGES BY MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES OF
SNOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROADER TROUGH SHOULD DIVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND HEAD EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE COLD AIR AND MOISTURE. CHANCES OF
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING FRIDAY EVENING AND
PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. SOME MOISTURE COULD LEAK EASTWARD INTO THE
PIEDMONT AND PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MIX BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS DISAGREE
CONSIDERABLY ON HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIG DURING
THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. BY
SUNDAY, THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE AS A COLD FRONT EXITS EASTWARD.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST MONDAY...
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS,
WITH QUIET WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE RELAXED
POST-SUNSET, WITH STILL COME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AFTER SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASS THROUGH
TOMORROW MID-MORNING. WINDS INCREASE BY MIDDAY, UP TO 10 KNOTS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. NO RAIN IS
FORECAST. TOMORROW EVENING, JUST BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, SOME LLWS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
PARTICULARLY FOR BLF. THIS IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LLWS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPANDING TO
INCLUDE LWB/BCB ALSO.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. LLWS ALSO ENDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST BUT CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER VSBY AND
CIGS. THE SNOW CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY, BUT LIKELY WILL ONLY
AFFECT BLF/LWB, WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE.
SNOW WINDS DOWN LATE THURSDAY, WITH VFR RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AGAIN BRINGING SNOW CHANCES TO MOST OF THE
AREA, WHICH WOULD LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO SUB- VFR. MUCH
COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTY
WINDS CAUSING WIND CHILLS TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW
ZERO FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR SEVERAL MORNINGS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCB/PW
AVIATION...JCB
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