089
FXUS61 KRNK 290520
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1220 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
..AVIATION UPDATE
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AND MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST SATURDAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HELD A CONFERENCE
CALL WITH THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC NWS OFFICES THIS AFTERNOON,
AND CONSENSUS WAS TO DIGEST MORE DATA FROM THE 18Z AND 00Z
MODEL RUNS BEFORE FINALIZING AREAS WHICH WILL NEED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER CONFERENCE CALL WILL BE
HELD ON THE NIGHT SHIFT TONIGHT.
IN GENERAL, COLD WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW THIS WEEKEND. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, FAR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
2) ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL WINTER STORM. ARCTIC AIR
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM WILL BRING
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, FAR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CLOUDS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND
DAYBREAK. DUE TO THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES, SUB ZERO WIND
CHILLS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR ZERO EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10-15 BELOW ZERO WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES... WARRANTING A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY.
WATCH FOR REFREEZE OF WATER ON ROADS TONIGHT. ANY MELTING WHICH
OCCURRED TODAY WILL QUICKLY FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES TAKE A
TUMBLE THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL WINTER
STORM. ARCTIC AIR AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM WILL
BRING DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO DIVE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY, TRACKING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY. THIS POWERFUL FEATURE WILL TRIGGER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ON SATURDAY.
A DEEP CONVEYOR BELT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH A STRONG
EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC, WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS EVENT LAST WEEKEND, AN
ESTABLISHED ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH NO WARM NOSE ALOFT ENSURES THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE; THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW. THE QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM, LIKE ALL
WINTER STORMS, IS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND LOCATION.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON SATURDAY, A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION
ZONE IS PROJECTED TO SET UP OVER THE AREA, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW ARE PARTICULARLY LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS THEY TRACK AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW'S
CORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
COASTAL LOW TRANSITIONS INTO A POWERFUL NOR'EASTER AND PULLS AWAY
INTO THE ATLANTIC.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MAJOR COASTAL SYSTEM, A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF
INTENSE COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, RANGING FROM 0F TO 10F ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SEE LOWS AROUND
10F TO 15F. THE ENTRY OF THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS, CREATING LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BETWEEN 5F
AND 10F BELOW ZERO. ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES AND PEAKS, EVEN MORE
EXTREME CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES PLUMMETING TO
15F OR MORE BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CIGS/VSBYS TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL MVFR BKN CIG AT BLF FROM 07-10Z THIS
MORNING. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS THIS MORNING, THEN WINDS ABATE AFTER
18Z, AND GO CALM AFTER 23Z. SOME BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WINTER
STORM IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR IMPACTS
TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT THE COLD TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009>011-015-019-020.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
018.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...PM/RCS
AVIATION...PM/WP
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