894
FXUS61 KRNK 291711
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1211 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF OUR AREA, BUT MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF U.S. 460 FROM 1PM FRIDAY TO 1PM SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR
THE MOUNTAINS.
2) A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND MORE ARCTIC AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS TO CONCLUDE THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO LOWER TEENS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS FROM -5 TO -15F FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WV INTO NORTHWEST NC. WIND TO START WEAKENING TOWARD
MIDDAY AND WITH TEMPS RISING THROUGH THE TEENS MOST WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE ZERO, EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND MORE ARCTIC AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS TO CONCLUDE THE WEEKEND.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND THE WARMER GULF STREAM TO THE
EAST WILL HELP TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE. WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE, THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED IS SNOW. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THOUGH THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS RISING TO WHERE FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW
SEEMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 460, WHICH IS WHERE A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED. LOCATIONS NORTH OF ROUTE 460 APPEAR TO
ONLY REACH ONE TO THREE INCHES. BANDS OF SNOW COULD ARRIVE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA DURING MIDDAY
FRIDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD OCCUR DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER. THE SNOW
SHOULD TAPER BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION, ARCTIC AIR WITHIN A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ARRIVE
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES AWAY TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEEPENING
LOW AND THE APPROACHING HIGH WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE WIND GUSTS WITH
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING UP TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEED FOR ANY WIND HEADLINES WILL
BE ASSESSED IN FUTURE UPDATES. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES
SHOULD SHARPLY DROP AMIDST THIS COMBINATION OF FRIGID AIR AND STRONG
WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
SUNDAY MORNING, AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TOWARDS 0 TO -10
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT AND -10 TO -20 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. EVEN WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO -25 DEGREES MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY AND ALSO
FOR MOUNT ROGERS. THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND THE AIR MASS SHOULD START TO MODERATE DURING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A SLOW-
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVERNIGHT ALONG A LINE STRETCHING FROM KLWB TO KLYH,
CREATING A CORRIDOR OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AT KLWB AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL STEADILY EXPAND THROUGH THE
MORNING TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 460 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING KBLF-KBCB-KROA-KLYH. AS SNOWFALL
RATES INTENSIFY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW ONE MILE WITHIN THE STEADIEST BANDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A POWERFUL WINTER STORM IS TAKING SHAPE AND IS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY TO DELIVER MODERATE TO MAJOR IMPACTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN MID- ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY, RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM, INTERACTING WITH A DEEP RESERVOIR
OF ARCTIC AIR, IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FROM THE CAROLINAS
INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
THE STORM’S DEPARTURE WILL USHER IN A SECONDARY SURGE OF FRIGID
AIR, WITH WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A MUCH QUIETER
PATTERN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR, VFR SKIES FOR AVIATORS
AND TRAVELERS ALIKE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>018-022-023-032>035-043>047-058-
059.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042.
DISCUSSION...PW/WP
AVIATION...RCS
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