994
FXUS61 KRNK 300043
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
743 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ONLY MINIMALLY WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO
WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS
STARTING FRIDAY... ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460.
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460.
AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREME COLD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST FULL
WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREME COLD FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN
ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND THE
WARMER GULF STREAM TO THE EAST WILL HELP TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN A
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. WITH PLENTY OF
COLD AIR IN PLACE, THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED IS SNOW.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM WHERE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION.
HAVE INTRODUCED AN EARLIER ARRIVAL, OR ONSET OF SNOW WITHIN THE
NEW RIVER AND GREENBRIER VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE WITHIN THESE AREAS. ASIDE
FROM THIS TREND, NOTHING HAS CHANGED. STILL LOOKING AT A HARD
DELINEATION IN WHERE IT SNOWS AND WHERE IT DOES NOT SNOW.
THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WEST OF I-81 FRIDAY
MORNING MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG THE 460 CORRIDOR
WEST OF ROANOKE FROM BLACKSBURG TO BLUEFIELD.
IN GENERAL THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 460 CORRIDOR, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
THE NORTH. INITIALLY THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY, BUT THE APEX OF THE EVENT DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL
SATURDAY WHEN THE COASTAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY SNOW WITH SNOW RATIOS OF 20:1.
MODEL LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF RANGES FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR
I-64 TO A QUARTER INCH NEAR 460 TO AROUND 4 OR 5 TENTHS NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER. CONVERT THIS TO SNOW AND YOU END UP WITH A
BROAD RANGE, WITH AN INCH OR TWO IN THE FAR NORTH TO AS MUCH AS
4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO
SHOW SOME VARIABILITY WITHIN THE AREA OF HEAVIER QPF, SUGGESTING
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
WHERE MESO-BANDING OCCURS, AND SOME POCKETS WHERE AMOUNTS MAY
UNDER PERFORM (LESS THAN 4 INCHES) NEAR THE BASE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM WILKES/SURRY TO CARROLL/PATRICK WHERE A DOWNSLOPE
NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS RESULTING IN A DRYING EFFECT THERE.
THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT IS BEING FORECAST. AS THE STORM DEEPENS
ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED WINDS TO INCREASE AREAWIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40 MPH IN THE
PIEDMONT TO AS MUCH AS 60 MPH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ALL OF
THE SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE FALLING ON A LAYER OF ICE (THE
COMPACTED SNOW AND SLEET OF THE PREVIOUS STORM). DUE TO THE LACK
OF FRICTION, ALL OF THE NEW SNOW WILL BECOME AVAILABLE TO BLOW
WITH THE WIND... WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRIFTING AND
ROADS BEING INUNDATED FROM WIND SWEPT SNOW.
IN ADDITION, ARCTIC AIR WITHIN A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES
SHOULD SHARPLY DROP AMIDST THIS COMBINATION OF FRIGID AIR AND
STRONG WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL
TOWARDS 0 TO -10 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT AND -10 TO -20 DEGREES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EVEN WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN
TO -25 DEGREES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY AND ALSO FOR MOUNT ROGERS. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF MODEL TRENDS REMAIN
CONSISTENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF FEBRUARY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY MIDWEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM,
SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO POINT
TOWARD A LOW THAT MAY TRACK UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS SO
WE WOULD BE DEALING WITH MIXED P-TYPES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A SLOW-
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVERNIGHT ALONG A LINE STRETCHING FROM KLWB TO KLYH,
CREATING A CORRIDOR OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AT KLWB AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL STEADILY EXPAND THROUGH THE
MORNING TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 460 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING KBLF-KBCB-KROA-KLYH. AS SNOWFALL
RATES INTENSIFY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW ONE MILE WITHIN THE STEADIEST BANDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A POWERFUL WINTER STORM IS TAKING SHAPE AND IS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY TO DELIVER MODERATE TO MAJOR IMPACTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN MID- ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY, RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM, INTERACTING WITH A DEEP RESERVOIR
OF ARCTIC AIR, IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FROM THE CAROLINAS
INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
THE STORMS DEPARTURE WILL USHER IN A SECONDARY SURGE OF FRIGID
AIR, WITH WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A MUCH QUIETER
PATTERN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR, VFR SKIES FOR AVIATORS
AND TRAVELERS ALIKE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ022-023-032>035-043>047-058-059.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
VAZ007-009>018.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
WVZ042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR WVZ043-044.
DISCUSSION...PM/SH
AVIATION...RCS/SH
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