067
FXUS61 KRNK 301225
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MADE AT 7 AM FOR
SNOWFALL ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE WEST, AS WELL AS EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES.
A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS GENERALLY
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 460 AND INTERSTATE 64 (WEST OF LEXINGTON, VA)
FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS
WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BEGINNING TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREME COLD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST FULL
WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE COMING WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREME COLD FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS TODAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND THE WARMER GULF STREAM TO
THE EAST WILL HELP TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE BEGINNING TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF COLD
AIR IN PLACE, THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED IS SNOW.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM WHERE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION.
LOOKING TO THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW: LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION WEATHER DATA SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE MORNING, BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE PIEDMONT
OF VIRGINIA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST DECREASE IN SNOWFALL TOTALS, WHERE
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 460 CORRIDOR, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE CORRIDOR. THIS IS KEEPING IN MIND THAT, WHILE
THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THE APEX OF THE EVENT WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL AROUND DAWN
ON SATURDAY, WHEN THE COASTAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY SNOW WITH SNOW RATIOS OF 15:1 TO
20:1. MODEL LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF RANGES FROM LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH NEAR I-64 (WEST OF LEXINGTON) TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH NEAR THE VA/NC STATE BORDER. CONVERT THIS TO SNOW AND YOU
END UP WITH A BROAD RANGE, WITH AN INCH OR TWO IN THE FAR NORTH
TO AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME VARIABILITY WITHIN THE AREA OF
HEAVIER QPF, SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 10 INCHES WHERE MESO-BANDING OCCURS, AND SOME POCKETS
WHERE AMOUNTS MAY UNDER PERFORM (LESS THAN 4 INCHES) NEAR THE
BASE OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM WILKES/SURRY TO CARROLL/PATRICK
WHERE A DOWNSLOPE NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS RESULTING IN A DRYING
EFFECT THERE.
THE SNOW IS FORECASTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT IS BEING FORECAST. AS THE STORM DEEPENS
ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AREAWIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40 MPH IN THE
PIEDMONT TO AS MUCH AS 60 MPH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. ALL OF
THIS DRY, POWDERY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LAND ON A LAYER OF ICE
(THE COMPACTED SNOW AND SLEET OF THE PREVIOUS STORM). DUE TO THE
LACK OF FRICTION, ALL OF THE NEW SNOW WILL BECOME AVAILABLE TO
BLOW WITH THE WIND...WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRIFTING
AND ROADS BEING INUNDATED FROM WIND SWEPT SNOW, IN ADDITION TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION, ARCTIC AIR WITHIN A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES
SHOULD SHARPLY DROP AMIDST THIS COMBINATION OF FRIGID AIR AND
STRONG WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL
TOWARDS 0 TO -10 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT AND -10 TO -20 DEGREES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EVEN WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN
TO -25 DEGREES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY AND ALSO FOR MOUNT ROGERS. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, AND WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED LATER TODAY TO A WARNING IF MODEL TRENDS
REMAIN CONSISTENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE COMING WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF FEBRUARY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY DURING THE COMING WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO POINT TOWARD A LOW THAT MAY
TRACK UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED P-TYPES.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WHILE STILL AT VFR LEVELS, CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS
THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED VCNTY OF BLF AND WILL
GRADUALLY EXPAND INTO LWB/BCB SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, AND WILL
STEADILY EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING TO INCLUDE KROA- KLYH, WITH
SNOW BEGINNING AT KDAN DURING EARLY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES MAY
INITIALLY NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED, BUT AS SNOWFALL RATES
INTENSIFY DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, VISIBILITIES
ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 1SM TO 2SM MILE RANGE AT TIMES
WITHIN THE STEADIEST BANDS, WHILE CEILINGS WILL FALL SOLIDLY
INTO IFR TO LIFR LEVELS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST, BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY SOUTH OF
A KBLF-KROA-KLYH LINE, WITH KDAN THE MOST HEAVILY IMPACTED AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THERE BY SATURDAY NIGHT REACH 6-8 INCHES.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS WILL USHER IN A SECONDARY SURGE
OF FRIGID AIR, WITH WINDS FORECASTED TO INCREASE AREAWIDE TO GUSTS
RANGING FROM 40KT IN THE PIEDMONT TO AS MUCH AS 55KT LOCALLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE STORM SUNDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING A TRANSITION TO A MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR, VFR
SKIES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR VAZ022-032-033-043-044-058-059.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR VAZ023-034-035-045>047.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ043-044.
DISCUSSION...NF/PW
AVIATION...PM
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